December 10th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:  AI Time's Person of the Year is typically announced between December 6th and 12. Last night, a series of trades by a mysterious new wallet "1944dbb61fa" sent odds for "artificial intelligence" soaring more than 30%. They will win over $52k if they're right. |
FOMC Day The final Fed meeting of the year is today and Powell is widely expected to cut another quarter point. No cut is forecast for January, despite Powell likely to mention "unemployment," "AI," and "layoffs" in the press conference. |
Battle of the Kevins Fed Chair Jay Powell's term expires in May 2026 and Kevin Hassett is the 70%+ favorite in the odds, with Kevin Warsh a distant second. At The Oracle, we spoke with a former Fed official who thinks the bond market is flashing serious warnings signals about Hassett and some surprising longshots that are worth a look. |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? View market → | 66%+38% |
| Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? View market → | 53%+32% |
| Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human? View market → | 31%-20% |
| "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office | 12d |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...? | 20d |
| Kansas Governor Republican Primary Winner | 12h ago |
| What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? | 13h ago |
| Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked? | 14h ago |
| UEFA Champions League Winner | $1.97M |
| Fed decision in December? | $37.52M |
| Portugal Presidential Election | $5.42M |
| Super Bowl Champion 2026 | 60d |
| English Premier League Winner | 167d |
That's all for today.
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