December 17th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:  Wiles Gone Wild A Vanity Fair profile has catapulted White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles to the most likely to be first out of the Trump cabinet. In the piece, Wiles is quoted saying Trump has "an alcoholic's personality," reveals internal divisions over tariffs, and takes shots at JD Vance, Elon Musk, and other members of the administration. Following the piece, her odds of being out first went up more than 9x. |
Kushner Pulls Out Odds of Netflix closing the Warner Brothers Discovery deal shot up 45% yesterday on reports that a private equity firm owned by Jared Kushner, pulled its financial backing from the rival $104b bid from Paramount Skydance. |
Trump Surprise Address Trump has scheduled a surprise address to the nation tonight at 9 pm EST. The White House has not revealed the topic, but Polymarket traders think he's most likely to mention inflation, "the border" and the big beautiful bill. Trump is least likely to mention Bitcoin, Syria, and the "green new scam." |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025? View market → | 6%-27% |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? View market → | 15%-23% |
| How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025? | 7d |
| What day will the Lighter airdrop be? | 13d |
| Bank of Japan decision in December? | 1d |
| Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record in 2025? | 11h ago |
| What will Kamala Harris say on Jimmy Kimmel Live! on December 17? | 13h ago |
| Fed decision in January? | $3.64M |
| Portugal Presidential Election | $3.45M |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch? | $1.95M |
| Boxing: Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua | 1d |
| Super Bowl Champion 2026 | 53d |
Whale Moves | $106,463 position on "No" Weed rescheduled in 2025? | $106.5K |
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That's all for today.
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