December 8th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today: Microstrategy The stock of Bitcoin holding company Strategy has cratered from $451 in July to sub-$200 today. Despite concerns that the company could become a forced seller of BTC, one Polymarket trader @arme has gone all-in on a $36,929.26 "Yes" position that $MSTR will buy at least 1,000 more BTC no later than today. He's already up 39% on his trade, and will walk away with $86k if he's right. |
OpenAI Delays? Sam Altman's OpenAI is reportedly accelerating the release of its next gen AI model following rapid increases in Google's model performance. But Odds for the new model to drop tomorrow, Tuesday, cratered from 90%+ to under 10% overnight. |
Merger Cop-in-Chief Trump weighed in yesterday on Netflix's $82.7b deal to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery. The president warned that "very big market share...could be a problem," and suggested he would be personally involved in the regulatory review of the deal. Will it close next year? |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity's Last Exam by January 31? View market → | 27%-30% |
| Fed decision in December? | 1d |
| Elon Musk # tweets December 2 - December 9, 2025? | 1d |
| Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31? | 14h ago |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | 12h ago |
| Portugal Presidential Election | $4.00M |
| Super Bowl Champion 2026 | $2.11M |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | $1.91M |
| Wolves vs. Manchester United | 7h |
| Lightning vs. Maple Leafs | 12h |
That's all for today.
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