December 12th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:  Making Europe Great Again A new report alleges the Trump Administration is trying to persuade more countries to leave the EU. According to a Defense One report, which administration officials have denied, a classified version of the National Security Strategy aims to persuade Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland to break away from Brussels. Polymarket traders don't think this will happen - at least next year. |
Happy Not-QE Day At the last FOMC meeting, where the committee cut rates a quarter point, Powell also announced $40b of bond purchases beginning today. The move, which the Fed is calling "Reserve Management Purchases"(RMP), coincided with a surge in odds for the S&P 500 to hit an all-time high by end of year. |
More Tankers? Several media outlets are reporting that the U.S. is preparing to seize more oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela. Odds for a second tanker seizure by end of year more than doubled following the news. |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? View market → | 78%+33% |
| Will Dr 'Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election? View market → | 27%-37% |
| What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model? | 18d |
| Elon Musk # tweets December 5 - December 12, 2025? | 5h |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 12h ago |
| How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? | 12h ago |
| AWS service disrupted by January 31? | 13h ago |
| What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model? | $3.31M |
| Fed decision in January? | $3.16M |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | $1.49M |
| English Premier League Winner | 165d |
| 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig | 8h |
That's all for today.
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