What Just Happened?

December 18th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today: Top Stories "The Best is Yet to Come" Ahead of Trump's speech yesterday, Tucker Carlson warned that Trump would announce a war with Venezuela. But we ended up getting a speech about the economy. "We're poised for an economic boom, the likes of which the world has never seen," Trump said. Polymarket traders think Trump's approval rating is more likely to stay flat or decline than improve in the coming weeks. Check odds → Tanker War? While Trump didn't mention Venezuela in his speech last night, he did order a "blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving the country, targeting Maduro's targeting main source of income. Odds of another tanker seizure this year were up modestly on the news. Check odds → Epstein Eve Attorney General Pam Bondi has said the DOJ "will follow the law" when it comes to releasing the additional Epstein files as mandated by Congress. But tomorrow is the December 19 deadline, and odds have fallen below 50% for the administration to comply. Check odds → ​ Breaking News Odds S&P 500 all time high by December 31? View market → 16% -18% Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? View market → 5% -26% Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? View market → 95% +15% See all Breaking → ​ Ending Soon Ends In Next US x Venezuela military engagement on...? 12d Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? 12d Elon Musk Net Worth on December 31? 12d See all Ending Soon → ​ Hot Polymarkets Volume Fed decision in January? $7.22M Boxing: Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua $3.36M UEFA Champions League Winner $3.35M Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 $1.28M See all Hot Polymarkets → ​ Top Sports Starts In Rams vs. Seahawks 8h Clippers vs. Thunder 13h 2026 NBA Champion 194d Knicks vs. Pacers 12h See all Top Sports → Whale Moves $539,031 position on Old Dominion $539.0K antman-batman-superman-lakers-in-5 $271,968 position on "Yes" Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? $272.0K catch23 $157,600 position on "No" Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? $157.6K tmry-st $299,700 position on Delaware Fightin Blue Hens $299.7K antman-batman-superman-lakers-in-5 See all Whale Moves → That's all for today. If you're waiting for the launch of Polymarket USA, make sure you're on the wait list. Get Priority Access 🦅 ​ If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here. 1280 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10028 U.S.