December 7th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:  UFO Files? On Dec 4, the Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office released a grainy, 10-minute video of a speck zipping around on a military sensor screen. The video appears on a page titled "UAP Imagery" and traders are split on whether this counts as Trump releasing "new UFO files." Judge for yourself at the discussion page. |
SpaceX SpaceX, which has 80-90% market share in the space launch market and owns the Starlink space internet service, is reportedly planning an IPO in mid-to-late 2026. Media reports have cited $800b as a target for the IPO, but Polymarket traders think its more likely for the listing to either be postponed, or price much higher: boom or bust scenarios. |
Starship Elon Musk has bet the future of SpaceX on the success of Starship, a huge new rocket model which can launch 100 ton payloads and Musk says will be capable of reaching Mars. Roughly 6 out of the 11 Starship test flights have been successful, and the next test is scheduled for Q1 of next year. Will Starship clear the pad? |
| Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? View market → | 4%-19% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? View market → | 70%+14% |
| Fed decision in December? | 2d |
| Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Driver Winner | 7d |
| ECB Interest Rates: December 2025 | 10d |
| Nick Fuentes sex tape released by March 31? | 12h ago |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | $3.96M |
| Romania: Bucharest Mayoral Election | $33.54M |
| # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? | $1.47M |
| Portugal Presidential Election | $1.92M |
| Time 2025 Person of the Year | $2.13M |
| Super Bowl Champion 2026 | 63d |
That's all for today. If you're waiting for the launch of Polymarket USA, make sure you're on the wait list.Get Priority Access 🦅 |
