🔮 Polygraph / Yoga pants, Epstein files, gift inflation

December 14th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today: Top Stories Epstein Deadline Looms The Trump Administration has five days left to release the Epstein files, as required by the Epstein Files Transparancy Act, which passed in the House 427-1. We interviewed Ro Khanna, the law's co-author, on what happens next if the DOJ keeps stalling. Read more → Lululemon's Next CEO? Yoga pants maker Lululemon's stock pumped 10% on news that its CEO would be replaced. The stock has been cut in half this year. There is no clear favorite yet in the odds, although the company's founder recently took out a full-page ad in the WSJ calling for a more "product-driven" leader. Check odds → Santaflation Each year the NORAD Santa Tracker publishes the total number of gifts delivered on Christmas. The market is currently expecting 8.2-8.3b gifts. If accurate, this would put the gift inflation rate at well below 2%. Check odds → ​ Breaking News Odds Will muddyrc win the Genesis Cup? View market → 33% +11% Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? View market → 37% -23% Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31? View market → 21% +10% See all Breaking → ​ Ending Soon Ends In "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office 8d Bank of Japan decision in December? 4d What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model? 16d See all Ending Soon → ​ New Listed What will SpaceX's public ticker be? 14h ago Will Dan Crenshaw sue Shawn Ryan by Jan 31? 15h ago Josh Allen x Hailee Steinfeld baby: Boy or Girl? 13h ago See all New → ​ Hot Polymarkets Volume Portugal Presidential Election $3.48M Fed decision in January? $4.91M Elon Musk # tweets December 9 - December 16, 2025? $2.88M Highest grossing movie in 2025? $1.08M Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? $1.45M See all Hot Polymarkets → ​ Top Sports Starts In UEFA Champions League Winner 167d Super Bowl Champion 2026 56d 2026 NBA Champion 198d Chargers vs. Chiefs 1h Cardinals vs. Texans 1h See all Top Sports → Whale Moves $160,619 position on "No" iX Jinping out in 2025? $160.6K victorpark See all Whale Moves → That's all for today. If you're waiting for the launch of Polymarket USA, make sure you're on the wait list. Get Priority Access 🦅 ​ If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here. 1280 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10028 U.S.