sábado, 27 de noviembre de 2010

El desarrollo económico y sus consecuencias

Por José Ricardo Stok Capella. *
Día a día, la prensa escrita nos muestra datos que reflejan el crecimiento económico del Perú, así como la consideración y reconocimiento que merece en el ámbito internacional. Inclusive, se está llegando a hablar, lo que me parece no solo prematuro sino imprudente, del milagro peruano. Mes a mes, se incrementan las ventas de diferentes productos de consumo, con guarismos que sorprenden. Por ejemplo ¡ya a setiembre se han vendido 85,000 nuevos vehículos, y se estima que para fin de año serán cien mil! Dado que buena parte de esos vehículos estarán en Lima y no se concreta el retiro de unidades obsoletas, ¡se imagina usted cómo estará el tránsito! ¿Serán adecuadas las medidas que se van tomando para ampliar algunos carriles en vías muy transitadas o para hacer by passes en otras?

No hace falta mucha imaginación para ver que se va muy por detrás de la necesidad. Sigue siendo imperioso que el Estado tenga una decidida actitud para incrementar la infraestructura, pero para esto no es necesario que él la pague; basta tan solo promoverla, y que los particulares asuman estas actividades.

Pero, ¿cuál es el motor de todo este crecimiento? Ya no podemos hablar del precio de los minerales, que sí fue un factor clave que arrastró a un desarrollo económico en los últimos diez años. Se suele sostener que el desarrollo proviene porque se genera una demanda que satisface las necesidades, y como el Perú tiene ingentes necesidades, estas presionan a ser satisfechas. Para que sea realidad este razonamiento, le falta un elemento fundamental: la capacidad adquisitiva. Solo cuando la necesidad cuente con capacidad adquisitiva podrá demandar; mientras tanto se quedará en necesidad insatisfecha y frustrada. Y, a Dios gracias, el chorreo de hace años, se ha ido dando, y como tierra reseca se ha absorbido, satisfaciendo, en primer lugar, lo más imprescindible. Ahora, pasados unos años y con los bolsillos con algo de dinero, sale en busca de nuevas cosas. Pero su capacidad adquisitiva se multiplica ya que comienza a ser sujeto de crédito; o al menos así lo consideran las instituciones financieras, que ven aquí una magnífica oportunidad para colocar tanta liquidez con la que cuentan.

Llama la atención que, en las encuestas sobre percepción de confianza, la mayoría de los consumidores se expresa cautelosa y como no muy esperanzada en el futuro. Sin embargo, como hemos señalado y se observa, se actúa como si no existiera el más mínimo temor al futuro, basados en unos ingresos permanentes.

El Ministerio de Economía y el BCR, quieren limitar ese crecimiento para que no sea desmedido: para lograr como dice el dicho popular, no estirar el brazo más que la manga. Así se incrementa la tasa de referencia, se pretende limitar la disponibilidad de la CTS, etc. Son medidas, en mi opinión, parciales y por esto, ineficaces. Como cuando se pretende resolver el problema de la violencia en las barras sólo con medidas represivas; se deja de lado el origen: ¿qué pasa en la familia, en los valores? En el caso que nos ocupa, también hay que ir a ese origen, la familia, que es escuela de valores. Y el valor fundamental que hay que inculcar y enseñar a vivir es el ahorro. El ingreso individual solo tiene dos destinos: gasto o ahorro. No se puede pretender poner freno al gasto con medidas de tipo represivo: la economía de mercado se resiste. Más bien hay que fomentar el ahorro. El ahorro es, en una familia, una genuina apuesta por el futuro.

Entre las noticias de crecimiento, hay una que no debe pasar inadvertida: es la que destaca que el sector con mayor crecimiento en los últimos meses ha sido la manufactura. Y es doblemente importante porque esta no depende de la coyuntura de precios internacionales de los minerales, y porque genera estabilidad y consistencia en el entramado productivo nacional.

Tres aspectos para resumir: 1. Nos alegra el crecimiento económico general, especialmente porque en este tiene parte importante la manufactura. 2. Creemos que más que restringir la demanda de consumo, hay que fomentar decididamente el ahorro. 3. El Estado, a nivel nacional o municipal, debe promover inversiones magnánimas en infraestructura con ánimo audaz y esquemas de mayor participación privada.

Docente del PAD Escuela de Dirección de la Universidad de Piura. Artículo publicado en el diario Gestión, 26 de octubre de 2010.
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Emerging markets enjoying super-cycle

By: Gerard Lyons* 

The world economy is in a super-cycle. This is a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more.

There are many factors driving this, including rising trade, high rates of investment, rapid urbanisation and technological innovation.

Super-cycles are also characterised by the emergence of economies enjoying rapid growth, such as China, India and now Indonesia.

The world economy has twice enjoyed super-cycles before. The first, from 1870 to 1913, saw a significant pick-up in global growth, with the world growing on average each year by 2.7%, a full one percent higher than previously seen. That cycle was led by the emergence of the United States and saw increased trade and greater use of technologies from the Industrial Revolution.

The second super-cycle, from 1945 to the early 1970s, saw growth averaging 5% and was characterised by the post-war reconstruction and catch-up across large parts of the globe. It saw the emergence both of a large middle-class in the West and of exporting nations across Asia, led by Japan.

We may now be in another super-cycle. For people in Asia and across the emerging world, the idea of strong growth may not sound unusual. But for many in the West, the thought of a super-cycle may sound strange, given the present problems confronting the world economy. Yet the reality is that the world economy now is over US$62 trillion, about twice the size it was a decade ago, and it has already exceeded its pre-recession peak. Over the last two years, its rebound has been driven by policy stimulus in the West and by stronger growth in the East. Indeed, emerging economies, which are one-third of the world economy, currently account for two-thirds of its growth. This trend looks set to continue. By 2030, the world economy could grow to $308 trillion. Excluding inflation, that would equate to $129 trillion in real terms, or in today's prices, and to $143 trillion, keeping prices constant but allowing for some emerging-market currency appreciation.

The projections would imply a real growth rate of 3.5% for the period between 2000, when the super-cycle started, and 2030, or 3.9% from now till 2030. That would be a significant step-up compared with 2.8% between 1973 and 2000.

What is remarkable is not only the likely scale of this expansion but the fact that these forecasts are based on projections for growth that some might even think are too cautious. For instance, China is expected to grow on average 6.9% per annum over the period to 2030, and India by 9.3%. By 2030, India may have become the world's third largest economy. Moreover, Indonesia, currently the 28th largest economy may have moved to fifth largest in 20 years, having enjoyed nearly 7% average growth over that period. There are always risks that could impact global growth. The first super-cycle ended with the outbreak of the First World War, the second with the oil shocks of the early '70s. Hopefully, the world today is better placed to address such risks thanks to the emergence of international decision-making bodies and policy fora such as the G20. It is important to stress that a super-cycle does not mean that growth will be continuously strong over the whole period. For the last three or four years, we have been amongst the most pessimistic about US growth. I am still cautious. Despite the benefits of quantitative easing, the US economy will still struggle in the year ahead, growing below trend. Likewise, Europe and Japan face a sluggish near-term outlook where growth will be modest. All this makes it even more remarkable if Asia can drive more of its own growth. That is, after all, what the world needs.

Next year, China sees the first year of its 12th five-year plan. That should help growth. But, even allowing for this, the Chinese and other central banks across Asia will be tightening policy to cap inflation. In turn, this should allow growth to be more sustainable, but at rates either close to, or even below, those seen this year. So, even in a super-cycle, there can be challenges for policy-makers.

Just as it is important to focus on near-term challenges, it is also vital to keep sight of longer-term opportunities. During the super-cycle, we believe that China can displace the US as the world's largest economy by 2020, far sooner than many expect. Whilst such forecasts give a scale of the outlook, it is the story behind what is happening that is as important. There is the scale of the economies that are growing. As emerging economies grow they will exert greater influence on the world economy. Then there is the impact from the growth of new trade corridors. Close to 85% of the world's population are becoming increasingly inter-connected through trade, allowing an unprecedented number of people to contribute to the global economy. Cash and financial resources will be critical drivers of growth, given the need for investment, particularly in infrastructure. Then there is what I call perspiration, with more people working and spending, and inspiration, with greater use of innovation and technology.

The countries that will succeed will be those with the cash, the commodities and the creativity. In recent years I have described what was happening as the New World Order, reflecting a shift in the balance of economic and financial power from the West to the East.

While still valid, a super-cycle better reflects what is happening. It is still possible for the West to do well in this environment, particularly if economies there are creative. Yet it is Asia that appears to be the clear winner.

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*Group Head of Global Research and Chief Economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

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IWC/CFA News - November 26, 2010

Timber from Brazil Amazon more easily going west
With five new bridges to be completed in 2011, the interior of the Amazon basin will gain its first road outlet, through Peru, to the Pacific Ocean. At the same time the Brazilian government has released logging concessions amounting to one million hectares this year, expected to increase to 11 million within five years. These transportation improvements coupled with a large increase in logging concessions will make it far easier to export timber to the Asian market.
(Sources: ITTO, CNN)
 
Russia to cut export tariffs on timber in 2011
There have been discussions for 17 years whether Russia will enter WTO or not and gain access to low tariff markets. Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov is, after successful negotiations with the EU, close to signing an agreement to join during 2011. Upon entering the WTO, the export tariffs on timber will likely drop, foreseeably affecting the world wide log trade. China and Scandinavia have decreased Russian imports while Oceania and US Pacific Northwest have increased exports to Asia to replace Russian fiber. Removal of Russian timber tariffs could have a deleterious effect on the US Pacific Northwest, a region that in Q3 exported approximately one million cubic meters of logs to China. (Sources: RISI, Reuters)
 
Carbon credits from forestry in progress
Despite low hopes for any big movements in the allowances for carbon credits in the post Kyoto 2012 Protocol at the climate convention in Cancun starting end of November, some positive light can still be seen. There are discussions that the EU may allow carbon credits from protected forests under the REDD programme. Also, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger wants to include forest based offset credits into California's cap and trade scheme, which is planned to start in 2012.
(Sources: Carbon Positive, Bloomberg, Reuters)
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The International Woodland Company A/S
Homepage: www.iwc.dk
E-mail: pha@iwc.dk
 
The news in this e-mail may be copied or forwarded only with reference to IWC. The news from IWC is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. The news is for information purposes only and is not intended to be construed as counseling. IWC is not responsible for any action based on the information in the news.
 
 

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