Valinvest: Peruvian M&A activity to remain strong in mass consumption, financial services, agro-industry

Source: DealWatch
December 23, 2009

Peru
Valinvest: Peruvian M&A activity to remain strong in mass consumption, financial services, agro-industry
Peru has become a highly attractive destination in Latin America for investments, especially in the area of M&A activity, due to a range of factors, such as the strength of the economy and the low price of assets, Mauricio Grieve, funds executive at local investment management firm Valinvest, told DealWatch.

“The crisis has not affected all countries and all sectors in the same way,” Grieve said. He explained that Peru's growing popularity among investors “has occurred due to greater economic growth expectations and many [M&A deals] that have taken place have been related to strategic consolidation in various sectors with the opportunity of buying cheaply.”

Grieve added that M&A investments could prove to be an interesting growth strategy due to the fact that the most important companies in each economic sector “will try to continue the market consolidation,” and there will also be “funds for acquisitions of companies from investment funds.”

The sectors in which the greatest M&A activity is expected to be seen are linked to mass consumption (food and beverages), financial services, where various significant deals have already taken place this year, and agro-industry, said Grieve. He also pointed out that some investors were taking advantage of the low prices to make investments in the mining industry.

The funds executive explained that economic stability and growth of countries as a whole were fundamental factors in attracting investments, which meant that aside from Peru, Colombia, Brazil and Chile would also be popular among private equity funds.

“In terms of private equity, Peru is still a small market that is on the up because of the attractiveness of its expanding economy and much improved regulatory framework,” Grieve added.

At national level, the measures implemented in recent times by the Peruvian securities and exchange commission (Conasev) have been beneficial. “The new legal framework is reducing costs and red tape, improving investment conditions and protecting the investor,” he explained.

“The reforms are related to the constitution and placement of investment quotas on investment companies. The private investment funds will have to report the value of their equity and the information requirements for the [investment fund management companies] SAFI that only offer provide certificates of participation privately and as a consequence they are not regulated by Conasev,” the executive said. “The creation of investment funds has been made more flexible,” he summarized.

Valinvest currently manages a venture capital fund that has existed for 10 years. Through this fund investments have been made in agro-industry, exports, natural resources, industry, technology and media.

“Apart from this fund, we've created another private capital fund that's in the first stage of operation. This is a fund to trade securities that will be offered to the capital market as alternative short-term investments,” Grieve said.

The Valinvest executive confirmed that divestment has begun in one of the firm's venture capital funds and that some of the sales to be made would be settled by mid-2010 and would be reported to the market.

Valinvest is also putting together a second venture capital fund and is hoping to raise more than USD 60mn. This would start operations towards the end of next year, Grieve explained.

“The participating investors have actually not yet committed any capital to the venture capital fund, which is in the process of being structured. The capital will be private and [the fund] will basically be aimed at both domestic and foreign institutional investors.”

Valinvest expects to use the money in this fund to invest in the sectors of natural resources, agro-industry-exports and mining. “However, we haven't ruled out certain retail companies that have significant growth potential in the local market. We're receiving projects from various sectors and we're studying these to include them in our portfolio,” stated Grieve. Seguir leyendo

A Proven Source for Deal Flow: Venture Development

By Becca Braun, President, JumpStart Ventures
October 29, 2009

Sourcing deal flow from venture development organizations is a relatively new phenomenon, as most of these organizations have started within the last five years. Despite their young age, they have already made it dramatically easier for you to access high potential deals within your own or other regions.

 What is a VDO?

Venture Development Organizations combine two unlikely elements: venture capital and economic development.  They are different from physical incubators, entrepreneurial service organizations, and small business government offices because they creatively combine three elements to their business model:

-          They directly invest risk capital.

-          Their operating and investment capital comes from charitable sources.

-          They work intensively with the companies in which they invest.

The most interesting element of this, to venture capital investors, is the charitable risk capital, which makes venture development different from many other sources.  The charitable capital concept stems from the region's leaders wanting to grow the local economy through entrepreneurship and the creation of entrepreneurial companies with technology-based jobs.  

Sources for the charitable risk capital can be private or public, but all grantors (read: not LPs) share the understanding that the funds provided to a VDO are invested with no direct financial return to them, with returns instead going to a so-called evergreen fund.    

Not surprisingly, most VDOs are located in geographies that are not known as entrepreneurial hot spots, though some of those regions now are awakening and making up nicely for lost time--Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Oklahoma City, for example. Perhaps this is due to their base economies having struggled and having been forced to reinvent themselves through entrepreneurship. The indicators are that it is beginning to work.

Why pay any attention?

Sourcing deals from VDOs yields many benefits to a venture investor, namely:

They reduce risks

The combination of seed funding bundled with intensive technical assistance progresses technology companies through their earliest stages while simultaneously preparing them for venture funding.  By providing pre-seed or seed funding, usually while the company is in the incubating stage, VDO's help minimize technical product risks. Intensive assistance, sometimes as much as a full day a week for 18-24 months, focuses founder entrepreneurs on hitting critical growth milestones, such as knowing their market and strengthening management teams.

"My belief in these programs as an investor is reinforced by my own experience as a first time founder and all the mistakes I was forced to experience, rather than being coached to avoid," said Phineas Barnes, Principal of First Round Capital,

They make your investment easier.

VDOs simplify your investment decision by bringing deals that have cleaner balance sheets and more information at-the-ready, effectively serving as a source of due diligence. Pitch presentations are stronger because the entrepreneur has already competitively pitched to secure investment from a VDO and received intensive additional marketing support for refining and polishing the pitch to you.

When a company receives an investment from a VDO, it goes through due diligence similar to that of a for-profit investor; documents are in place, materials are organized and easy to access and external expert opinions have been collated.  

 "By the time our local VDO has evaluated a company with domain experts, invested seed capital, educated the entrepreneurs about how to organize a business for follow-on venture capital, and helped the company meet meaningful milestones, it's ready for us to take a look," comments Managing Director Jonathan Murray of Early Stage Partners in Cleveland.  

The bottom line

VDOs are good partners in identifying the highest potential technologies and companies in a region and making it easy for you to access and invest in them.  Consider Pittsburgh: often mentioned as one of the 10 best up-and-coming regions for entrepreneurship. Seventy percent of the Pittsburgh region's venture capital investment goes to companies that received seed investment and worked with one of the most well-developed and successful VDOs in the country, Innovation Works.

Koleman Karleski, Managing Partner of Chrysalis Ventures, is among the many venture capitalists who  increasingly see VDOs as a reliable and high quality source of deal flow.  "The combination of bringing the right human resources and sufficient capital to actually achieve milestones is a really critical combination," he says.  "It enables companies to get to the point where VC firms will pick them; these companies are the diamonds in the rough."   

Becca Braun, President of JumpStart Ventures, was co-founder and initial CEO of Supplier Insight, a company that offers supplier management services and software to corporations and government agencies and that was ultimately acquired by Ariba (Nasdaq: ARBA). Becca was formerly a Vice President at Kirtland Capital Partners (KCP), a $300 million private equity firm located in Willoughby Hills, Ohio. Prior to KCP, Becca was a principal at The Parthenon Group, a strategic advisory and principle investing firm in Boston, Massachusetts. Becca graduated from Harvard Business School in 1997 and has a Bachelors degree in Linguistics from Harvard University. She is a co-founder of the Boston-based Harbus Foundation, and maintains involvement in The Braun Group, an executive communications firm. She serves on the boards/advisory boards of Embrace Pet Insurance, Red Cross Blood Services and Cleveland Skating Club, and is an alumna trustee of Springboard Enterprises.

The views expressed in this guest article do not necessarily reflect the views of PrivateEquityCentral.net.

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Latinforme: El Citi: ¿Demasiado grande para caer o para sostenerse?

Ya les había advertido que los problemas en el sistema financiero estadounidense no se habían acabado. En el día de ayer, comenzamos la semana con una noticia que sacudió a los mercados y que fue la mayor quiebra de una entidad financiera desde la desgracia sufrida por Lehman Brothers.

A pesar que ya se veía venir, no fue una buena noticia la quiebra del Banco CIT, acosado por un alto peso en sus deudas y por el período de cesación de pagos que protagonizó hace unas semanas.

¿Quién será el máximo perdedor con la caída del CIT? Lógicamente el pobre contribuyente estadounidense que según The New York Times, le representarán unos US$ 2.300 millones que la institución había recibido como parte de los planes de salvataje al sistema financiero en los EEUU.

Luego de la caída del CIT, y siendo conscientes que aún hay varias entidades más con dificultades y un alto riesgo de quiebra, el mercado se pregunta quién será el próximo. Y mientras tanto, se mira con temor a uno de los gigantes del sistema financiero estadounidense que no la pasa bien.

El Citigroup (NYSE:C ), el gigante que fuera rescatado por el gobierno estadounidense al que ahora le pertenece el 34% de la entidad y que hace unas semanas anunciara una pérdida neta para por US$ 3.200 millones, durante el tercer trimestre del año, sigue en problemas por la fuerte apuesta que hiciera en créditos al consumo riesgosos. (Continuar leyendo). Latinforme. Nov. 09. Seguir leyendo

Time for Private Equity to Pull the Trigger?

06-Oct-2009, CNBC.com

The famous World War II General George S. Patton used to say that he didn't judge a man by how high he climbed, but by how high he bounced after hitting the bottom.

It's probably worth considering this as we explore the world of private equity funds and the role they're playing in the biggest stock market rally in a least two generations.

PE firms have stumped up a measly 5 percent of the $1.46 trillion worth of deals this year (a figure down more than third from last year), their smallest contribution since at least 2000, according to Mergers & Acquisitions Report.

And it's not like there's a wave of cash waiting to get put to work, either. London-based research group Preqin says that, globally, PE funds have raised $38 billion in the last three months, 45 percent less than in the second quarter and a fraction of the $208 billion raised just prior to the credit crisis in the second quarter of 2007.

Here in the UK, the figures are even more bleak, with only 31 deals in Q3 with a value of just £556 million ($890 million) -- the slowest pace in a quarter of a century.

To make matters worse, previous (mostly leveraged) deals made with private equity cash are starting to come unglued: there have been 17-sponsored insolvencies in the UK so far this year, up 55 percent from 2008 and the highest total since the tech-bubble bursting aftermath of 2001.

In the US, the 62 PE-related Chapter 11 filings have already outpaced last year's total, the most recent being Colony Capital-backed  Station Casinos, which blew-up around $2.7 billion in equity.

The industry itself , especially in Europe, is going through some major upheavals, with respected veteran John Moulton stepping down from Alchemy Partners after a clash over strategy. Damon Buffini will give up his role as chairman at Permira and Guy Hands is no longer chief executive at Terra Firma (although he is chairman and chief investment officer).

So why the crisis of confidence and transactions?

To begin, the credit crunch isn't just about mortgages: with only $262 billion in syndicated loans sold thus far this year bank lending to the financial sector is only a fraction of its former self (one third of the second quarter in 2008, to be exact). That lack of juice squeezes the profitability of PE-sponsored deals, which typically rely on a big portion of borrowed money to complete.

Technical moves in the corporate bond market, along with record sales in Europe thus far this year, have also made life tough for PE funds. Companies themselves can fund acquisitions based on the yield of their own cash flows, their financing costs and the free-cash-flow yield of their target (a big part of the reason Kraft will be able to cobble together the $17.6 billion needed to buy Cadbury).

There are nascent signs of a PE recovery, though. Blackstone Group (+5.92%) is said to be close to making a $3 billion bid for the theme parks owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev, including Busch Gardens and SeaWorld. (Blackstone is a co-owner of the Universal theme park in Orlando, Florida, along with NBC Universal, a subsidiary of General Electric (+3.1%) and the parent of CNBC.)

PitchBook Data, a PE-focused research firm, estimates the private equity "overhang" (the difference between cash raised by the PE industry and cash invested) at around $400 billion.

With European shares valued at two-year lows (on a forward Price/Earnings basis) and expected to grow earnings by 25 percent in 2010 (compared to a 22 percent decline in 2009), PE firms could source a plethora of potential targets and keep a tidy bid premium into the current (albeit stalled) equity rally. 

And despite the conventional wisdom that mergers don't make money, many recent deals are fairing quite well: Towers Perrin studied 204 transactions of $100 million or more - made between September 2008 and May 2009 - and found that the buyers outperformed non-buying peers by 6.3 percent.

General Patton once said that courage was fear holding on just a minute longer. Private equity investors might paraphrase it to suggest that success is reticence investing just a little bit sooner.

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Q3'09 Sees PE Fundraising and Investment Steadily Rebounding

28-Oct-2009, Zero to IPO

The research results from Zero2IPO Research Center show that the total amount of newly raised PE funds targeting at Asian market (Including Chinese mainland) in Q3'09 continuously rose. In Q3'09, there were six PE funds available for investment in Chinese mainland fulfilling their fundraising for US$2.47B, drastically down by 86.8% year-on-year. In this case, although the gross amount of newly raised funds slightly increased quarter on quarter, the funds still faced the difficulties in fundraising. This also clearly mirrored the changes in PE upstream supply chain, for example the transformation of the attitude of investors from the imprudence in the past into the caution for the time being.

The reasons behind the phenomenon are as follows: first, the booming PE market with a lot of successful stories in the past two years sounded a magnet for investors, while GP-invested enterprises showed vulnerability to different extent after the outbreak of financial crisis. Second, the funds raised in 2008 failed to fully make investment, due to industry recession and GP investment slowdown. Generally speaking, a fund is expected to start the second round only when investing 80.0% of the total fundraising.

In Q3'09, five growth funds completed fundraising for US$270.86M, accounting for 83.3% and 11.0% of the total in terms of the number and amount of funds. The number of growth funds in Q3'09 increased one compared with that in Q2'09, while the amount raised drastically dropped 84.5%. There was another buyout fund worth US$2.20B completed in the quarter, constituting 89.0% of the total fundraising amount in Q3'09.

In terms of currency, all of the six PE funds targeting at Asian market (Including Chinese mainland) in Q3'09 were RMB funds for the first time, which further supports the research results of Zero2IPO Research Center on the development trend of RMB PE funds in recent years. That is, along with the funding injecting into Chinese multi-layer capital market, RMB funds on Chinese PE market are doomed to be more developed and finally take the lead. After the social security fund said to enlarge its investment in PE funds and China Securities Regulatory Commission lowered the access threshold for stockbroker direct investment in Q2'09, local governments, headed by Shanghai and Beijing Municipal Government, constantly staged new policies and gradually removed the policy barriers in the foundation of RMB funds in China. This in turn incurred another round of upsurge in the fundraising of RMB funds.

Moreover, there was no USD funds raised in Q3'09, because more and more GPs delayed fundraising and more funds were discarded amid the persistent depression of global economy. According to the statistics from Preqin, a world-famous research institution, Q3'09 saw a sharp drop of 55.0% in the aggregate fundraising amount of PE funds worldwide compared with that in the preceding quarter, staying at the lowest level since 2003. Certainly, to reduce alternative investment is only an expedient for institutional investors, and Q4'09 and 2010 will see a rebound in this respect. In fact, there were still a number of large-scale USD funds set up and starting fundraising, such as CDH China Growth Fund.

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Venture Capital Performance as of Q2 2009 Impacted by Poor Exit Market, According to Cambridge Associates and the NVCA

10-Year Venture Returns Decline Significantly, as 1999 Activity Begins to "Roll Off" Calculation

ARLINGTON, VA, October 27, 2009-- While venture capital performance remained largely unchanged for most time horizons for the period ending June 30, 2009, there was notable deterioration in the 10-year returns, according to the Cambridge Associates U.S. Venture Capital Index�, the performance benchmark of the National Venture Capital Association. The 10-year return fell to 14.3 percent from 26.2 percent in the previous quarter -- and from 33.9 percent a year earlier. The reason for the drop: Returns for the first half of 1999, when the exit market was especially active and profitable, are no longer included in the 10-year calculation. The absence of late 1990 exit activity is expected to impact returns for subsequent quarters as well.

Despite the decline in 10-year returns, the venture capital index continued to outperform other major market indices during Q2 2009 across all time horizons.

             US Venture Capital Index Returns for the Periods ending

                     6/30/2009, 3/31/2009 and 6/30/2008



For the                   1        3        5        10      15       20
 
period ending   Qtr.     Year    Years    Years    Years    Years    Years

               ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------

June 30,

 2009             0.2    -17.1      1.3      5.7     14.3     36.3     22.7
 
March 31,

 2009            -2.9    -17.5      1.3      5.8     26.2     34.2     22.5

June 30,

 2008             0.4      4.7     13.3     11.5     33.9     33.4     21.9



                              Other indices at June 30, 2009
 


DJIA             12.0    -23.0     -6.3     -1.7     -0.4      8.1      9.0

NASDAQ

 Composite       20.1    -20.0     -5.5     -2.2    -3.74      6.6      7.5

S&P 500          15.9    -26.2     -8.2     -2.2    -2.22      6.9      7.8
 


Source: Cambridge Associates LLC

Note: Because the US Venture Capital index is cap weighted, the largest

vintage years mainly drive the index's performance.

"We are now entering a period of time when the stark differences between today's exit market and the exit market ten years ago will be manifested in the return numbers in a meaningful way," said Mark Heesen, president of the NVCA. "Without a stronger IPO market, and by stronger I am suggesting a multiple of 8 to 10 times the current volume, these longer term performance numbers will continue to deteriorate over the next few years. Venture capital may still outperform the other major market indices, but by far less than the industry did in the last decade."

Said Peter D. Mooradian at Cambridge Associates, "The exit environment certainly needs to improve for the venture industry to generate strong returns for investors. But we believe that a sustained and meaningful industry shakeout emanating from the 2008 financial crisis will improve the competitive environment and entry valuations, another important component of the return equation."

Vintage Year Return Ratios

The following chart illustrates the relationship between the dollars contributed to venture capital funds by limited partners and the dollars distributed back to them by vintage year. The chart also incorporates the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the portfolio at 6/30/09 for an overall ratio. For example, the 1998 vintage year funds have already returned in cash 1.29 times the amount of contributions received from LPs. If you account for the current NAV of existing portfolio, the ratio increases to 1.45 times. However, it is important that the NAV is unrealized and will change as companies exit the portfolio, are revalued, or are written off. The 1995 vintage year funds have the most positive ratio, returning 5.98 times the cash contributed by LPs, a number which rises to 6.06 should those funds realize the value of what is currently in the portfolio. Later vintage years have yet to return significant cash to LPs as most funds do not begin return dollars until after year 5.

                        Vintage Year Return Ratio Chart



              LP Distributions/   Current NAV/   LP Distributions and NAV/

Vintage Year  LP Contributions  LP Contributions      LP Contribution
 
              ----------------- ---------------- -------------------------

1981-1994                  3.23             0.01                      3.24

1995                       5.98             0.07                      6.06
 
1996                       4.36             0.08                      4.45

1997                       2.79             0.10                      2.89

1998                       1.29             0.16                      1.45
 
1999                       0.62             0.26                      0.88

2000                       0.46             0.47                      0.92

2001                       0.37             0.61                      0.98
 
2002                       0.39             0.64                      1.02

2003                       0.31             0.78                      1.09

2004                       0.14             0.84                      0.98
 
2005                       0.09             0.83                      0.92

2006                       0.03             0.89                      0.92

2007                       0.00             0.84                      0.84
 
2008                       0.00             0.87                      0.88

Overall                    1.11             0.42                      1.53

Additional Performance Benchmarks

To view the full, comprehensive report, which includes tables on additional time horizons, vintage years and industry returns, please visit the Cambridge Associates or NVCA Websites.

Cambridge Associates derives its U.S. venture capital benchmarks from the financial information contained in its proprietary database of venture capital funds. As of June 30, 2009, the database is comprised of 1,281 venture funds formed from 1981 through 2009 with a value of approximately $89.5 billion.

The National Venture Capital Association (NVCA) represents more than 400 venture capital firms in the United States. NVCA's mission is to foster greater understanding of the importance of venture capital to the U.S. economy, and support entrepreneurial activity and innovation. According to a 2009 Global Insight study, venture-backed companies accounted for 12.1 million jobs and $2.9 trillion in revenue in the U.S. in 2008. The NVCA represents the public policy interests of the venture capital community, strives to maintain high professional standards, provides reliable industry data, sponsors professional development, and facilitates interaction among its members. For more information about the NVCA, please visit www.nvca.org.

Founded in 1973, Cambridge Associates delivers a range of services, including investment consulting, outsourced portfolio solutions, independent research, and performance monitoring and tools across all asset classes, to approximately 850 institutional and private clients worldwide. The firm has advised clients on alternative assets since the 1970s and compiles the performance results for more than 2,000 private partnerships to publish the Cambridge Associates U.S. Venture Capital Index� and Cambridge Associates U.S. Private Equity Index�, which are widely considered to be the industry-standard benchmark statistics for those asset classes. In total, the firm has over 950 employees serving its client base globally and maintains offices in Arlington, VA; Boston; Dallas; Menlo Park, CA; London; Singapore, and Sydney, Australia. For more information about Cambridge Associates, please visit www.cambridgeassociates.com.

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Managing with the Brain in Mind

Neuroscience research is revealing the social nature of the high-performance workplace.

Although a job is often regarded as a purely economic transaction, in which people exchange their labor for financial compensation, the brain experiences the workplace first and foremost as a social system. Like the experiment participants whose avatars were left out of the game, people who feel betrayed or unrecognized at work — for example, when they are reprimanded, given an assignment that seems unworthy, or told to take a pay cut — experience it as a neural impulse, as powerful and painful as a blow to the head. Most people who work in companies learn to rationalize or temper their reactions; they “suck it up,” as the common parlance puts it. But they also limit their commitment and engagement. They become purely transactional employees, reluctant to give more of themselves to the company, because the social context stands in their way.

Leaders who understand this dynamic can more effectively engage their employees’ best talents, support collaborative teams, and create an environment that fosters productive change. Indeed, the ability to intentionally address the social brain in the service of optimal performance will be a distinguishing leadership capability in the years ahead. (Continuar leyendo). By David Rock. Strategy+Business© Seguir leyendo

Small World (Private Equity Central Net)

 By Marc Raybin, Editor in Chief

"Bigger is better."

That saying may be true for some things, like football players and birthday cakes, but not everyone buys into that truism.

"If you look at the economics of around how venture funds operate, the observation is the larger the venture fund is, the more dependent that venture fund is on a larger exit in order to generate returns," explains Robert Ackerman, managing director and founder of Allegis Capital. "That plays against the backdrop of a dearth of IPOs or, at a minimum, the unpredictability of IPOs."

Ackerman contrasts that to smaller sized venture capital funds, like his. He says managers of smaller funds have more control over their ability to generate better returns in terms of the multiples times investment. That's because these returns can be generated through smaller exits than what are needed by the so-called mega-funds.

"It's not rocket science," he says. "It's just math."

Ackerman is not alone in his assessment when it comes to the beauty of being a smaller venture capital fund.

David Jones, chairman and managing director of Chrysalis Ventures out of Louiseville, agrees.

"If you do not have to put that much capital to work and you can focus on less capital-intensive businesses, you can drive good venture returns without a huge IPO market," Jones says.

Even in a crummy market, you can find buyers at a good price. Chrysalis has had two exits at more than $150 million each since the market tanked more than a year ago. That's pretty good for a firm that typically invests in companies needing only $10 million to $20 million in equity.

Ackerman is a seed and early stage investor. He focuses on companies that are typically in the idea stage. Looking out as many as eight years, Ackerman does not have the luxury of banking on a robust IPO market. Rather than rely upon the up-and-down nature of the public sphere, Ackerman looks to other avenues.

In fact, Ackerman operates with the assumption the IPO market simply does not exist. If he takes out of the sphere of possibilities, then he is free to concentrate on other avenues to exit.

"Our contention is that with smaller funds, where you are more disciplined with valuation, where you are more disciplined around the things you are investing in, you can generate returns from M&A exits," says Ackerman. "The job at the end of the day is to consistently generate returns."
Managers like Ackerman and Jones can afford to have the smaller exits that mega-funds cannot afford to do.

Ackerman does not think there are sectors in particular that are better served in the small market than being in the larger market, however, he does point to several capital-intensive spaces that are particularly hard hit when the IPO market is weak. Telecommunications, semiconductor, and equipment tend to require more investment than do other sectors.

Having said that, there are downsides to being smaller. Jones says small firms do not get rich off management fees. The return is in, well, the return. That is not such a bad thing, he says, as the interests of the general partners are aligned with those of the limited partners.

"Venture is clearly an environment where small is beautiful," Ackerman says.

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Peru will grow most among Latin America's top economies the next two years, the IMF forecasts. (LBC)

BY JOACHIM BAMRUD

Peru will have the fastest-growing GDP among Latin America's top economies both this and next year, the International Monetary Fund predicts in its latest World Economic Outlook released today.

Meanwhile, the fund revised up its forecasts for Brazil, the region's top economy, and it now predicts that Mexico, Latin America's second-largest economy, will leave recession next year.

Peru's GDP should expand by 1.5 percent this year and 5.8 percent next year, the IMF says.

BRAZIL AND MEXICO

Brazil's economy will likely fall by 0.7 percent this year. That's better than the IMF predicted earlier when it estimated a decline of 1.3 percent. Next year, Brazil's GDP should grow by 3.5 percent.
Mexico, however, will likely see a 7.3 percent decline this year before recovering next year with a 3.3 percent growth, the IMF says. All in all, Latin America's economies are expected to see 2.5 percent fall this year and a 2.9 percent expansion next year. Previously, the IMF had estimated a 2.6 percent decline in 2009 and a 2.3 percent expansion in 2010.

ARGENTINA AND VENEZUELA

Argentina, Latin America's third-largest economy, will see a GDP decline of 2.5 percent this year, but recover slightly next year with a 1.5 percent expansion. Venezuela, the fourth-largest economy, will see a decline of 2.0 percent this year and a further fall of 0.4 percent next year. That would make it the only country among the nine that will continue in recession into 2010. Colombia, the fifth-largest economy, should see a 0.3 percent GDP decline this year. Next year, its economy will likely expand by 2.5 percent, the IMF forecasts.

CHILE AND PANAMA

The fund expects Chile's economy to fall by 1.7 percent before growing at 4.0 percent next year. That's lower than the 5.0 percent 2010 forecast announced by Chile's finance minister Andres Velasco today. Panama, the 13th-largest economy in Latin America, will likely expand by 1.8 percent this year and 3.7 percent next year. Ecuador should see a 1.0 percent decline this year and 1.5 percent growth next year, while Uruguay's economy likely will expand by 0.6 percent in 2009 and 3.5 percent in 2010. Among smaller economies, Bolivia will post the highest growth this year (2.8 percent), followed by Haiti (2.0 percent). Next year, Paraguay will see the highest growth among smaller economies - 3.9 percent, the IMF forecasts.

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FMI: La recesión mundial ha terminado (Maximize)

La recesión más profunda desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial ha terminado, informó el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), que elevó hoy sus previsiones de crecimiento mundial, pero alertó de que la salida de la crisis será lenta. En su informe "Perspectivas Económicas Mundiales" da cuenta que, según sus nuevos cálculos, el mundo se contraerá 1,1% en 2009 (en julio había estimado 1,4%) y que en el 2010 crecería 3,1% (su anterior proyección fue de 2,4%).

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Are You Killing Enough Ideas?

Right at this moment, in a conference room or at an executive off-site meeting, a group of senior leaders of a large global company are wondering why they aren’t innovating enough. They’re probably focusing on a few specific questions: “Why don’t we have enough good ideas? How can we tell which idea is going to be the next big thing? Why is it so hard to get an idea from the drawing board into the market?” Most telling of all is the question: “Why do we still waste resources on ideas that people don’t believe in?” In other words, even though an idea has been effectively “killed,” it still remains on the agenda, with nobody fully willing to learn from the mistake, put it to rest, and move on to other endeavors. (Continuar leyendo) Strategy+Business. Booz & Co. 2009. Seguir leyendo

CalPERS Looking to Change Relationship with Fund Managers

By Marc Raybin
September 15, 2009

With more than $20 billion invested in private equity, the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) holds quite a bit of clout in the asset class. When the fund speaks, investors should listen. The nation's largest public pension fund said on Tuesday it supports the proposals put forth last week by the Institutional Limited Partners Association (ILPA) in an effort to improve the relationship between limited partners and general partners in private equity investing.

The ILPA published their ideas about how to alter the alignment, governance, and transparency of the relationship between institutional investors, such as CalPERS, and general partners managing the private equity funds. Specifically, the principles are as follows, according to CalPERS:

Alignment of interests: Management fees should cover reasonable operating expenses of the firm and not be excessive; the general partners' capital commitment to the fund should be substantial, with a higher percentage in cash; and there should be stronger provisions to help avoid profit distribution imbalances between the GPs and LPs.

Governance: Limited partners, collectively, should have stronger rights to suspend, terminate or dissolve a fund; the fund auditor should be independent; and meetings of limited partner advisory committees should be standardized and adhere to best practices.

Transparency: General partners should provide greater detail to investors about fees generated, carried interest profits received and underlying portfolio company performance.

"We feel the time is right for some changes to the institutional foundation for best practices," said Clark McKinley, a spokesman for CalPERS, which has been investing in private equity for nearly 20 years. "There have been some changes, [but] we feel it is time to do a recalibration."

McKinley pointed out these proposals are still in the formative stages and once they are adopted by ILPA, will be used on a voluntary basis by CalPERS. "We are not going to use them as a hammer," McKinley said.

ILPA published its proposed changes for the private equity space on Sept. 8, and according to McKinley, is still taking comments on their ideas from investors.

CalPERS has $20.6 billion in capital invested in private equity, with nearly $22 billion waiting to be deployed. As of Sept. 10, CalPERS said the value of its fund was at $198.5 billion. The fund provides retirement benefits to more than 1.6 million state, school and local public employees, retirees and their families in California.

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Facturas por cobrar podrán liquidarse en apenas 24 horas

Las pequeñas y medianas empresas (pymes) proveedoras de corporaciones, encuentran en el mercado cada vez más alternativas para obtener el tan preciado capital. En tal sentido, dentro de poco podrán hacer líquidas sus facturas en apenas 24 horas, ello gracias a la creación de un nuevo sistema denominado Ivale, que enlazará a compradores, proveedores,  el mercado de capitales y la negociación de las facturas. Ivale es una plataforma electrónica diseñada por Value Investment SAFI, en coordinación con Cavali, en la que se procesarán las facturas comerciales que emiten las pymes a sus proveedores, permitiendo que sean cobradas "en línea". Por otro lado, cabe mencionar, que Value Investments está próximo a lanzar un cuarto fondo de inversión de capital de riesgo, que se llamará Alpha.

Fuente: Diario Gestión

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Latin Leaders Cling to Early Hatred of U.S.: Alexandre Marinis

Commentary by Alexandre Marinis

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The world should look forward to the next generation of Latin American leaders. They will be less hostile toward the West and less likely to destabilize their neighbors.

The region's current rulers formed their political views back in the 1960s and 1970s, when the U.S. was supporting military coups to prevent communism from spreading beyond Cuba.

The ill will generated by U.S. policy reverberates today among political leaders in Central and South America even though the Cold War ended 20 years ago and the U.S. is focused on the Middle East and Asia, letting the region more or less take care of itself.

Latin America's future leaders grew up watching the Berlin Wall collapse on TV and celebrating the North American Free Trade Agreement. They know a different U.S., one that no longer has to meddle in their region's internal affairs to make sure capitalism prevails over communism.

In his 1986 book, "The Cycles of American History," Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. -- a former aide to President John F. Kennedy who opposed the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba -- said U.S. history moves in 30-year cycles between private interest and public purpose, free market and activist government, capitalism and democracy, Republicans and Democrats.

Today, as the global financial crisis swings the pendulum of history away from overly unregulated markets and into the arms of bigger government and Keynesian capitalism, Schlesinger's notion is worth revisiting from an international perspective.

Forming an Identity

One of his noteworthy insights is that generations are delineated by key historical events that take place while young adults acquire their political consciousness, or identity. These events, which shape hearts and minds, provide a common world view that people will share for life.

For leaders in Latin America, those key events included fighting oppressive military regimes propped up by an imperialist Uncle Sam. Clinging to the past, they stick to the only demand they can agree upon -- the end of Washington's embargo on Cuba -- while critical matters remain unattended.

They should worry, for instance, about the negative political and economic consequences of the neo-populist sentiment Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is cultivating throughout Central and South America.

Even respected moderates such as Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Chile's Michelle Bachelet fail to criticize Chavez for stoking the flames of tension and discord in the region.

Chavez's Influence

Relying on petrodollars and a strong military, Chavez's self-proclaimed socialist revolution has influenced the recent coup in Honduras as well as the remilitarization of the region, including last year's near-war between Colombia and Ecuador. And thanks to Chavez, the hemisphere will suffer from the economic decline that usually follows the nationalization of seized private businesses, the overextension of presidential terms to limits enjoyed only by dictators, and the curtailing of press freedoms.

Chavez's leadership grows stronger due to the political vacuum left by Brazil, the region's biggest country. For all his passionate speechmaking, Brazil's Lula has not uttered one word about the growing evidence that Chavez supplied weapons to FARC, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, a terrorist group involved with drug lords.

Double Standard

Nor has Lula responded to the growing evidence that Chavez illegally financed political campaigns in Argentina, Ecuador and elsewhere. In 2002, documents from ABIN, Brazil's national intelligence agency, suggested that Lula's Workers' Party might have received $5 million from FARC. The allegations were never proved.

Last week, Lula said he was concerned about Colombia's plan to give the U.S. access to seven military bases for operations against illegal drug traffickers and FARC guerrillas. Lula seems to agree with Chavez, who sees the Colombia-U.S. agreement as an "aggression" that should be countered with the purchase of "several battalions" of Russian-made tanks.

Yet Lula didn't oppose a joint naval exercise held by Venezuela and Russia last year that involved 16 warships and 1,600 Russian sailors in the Caribbean. During the exercise, a destroyer became the first Russian warship to cross through the Panama Canal since World War II.

So Lula and other Latin American leaders appear to have a double standard when it comes to military action.

'Automatic Anti-Americanism'

And that's nothing compared to Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, who charged that U.S. intelligence agencies, acting without the approval of President Barack Obama, planned the coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya from Honduras in late June. Ortega, of course, didn't just observe U.S. intervention as a young man in Latin America. He led the Sandinista government in battle against U.S-funded contra rebels in the 1980s.

"The continent must leave the automatic anti-Americanism behind, in my view a sign of immaturity," Colombian Defense Vice-Minister Sergio Jaramillo told O Estado de São Paulo, a Brazilian newspaper.

Jaramillo, at 42, sounds more reasonable than the most experienced Latin leaders. His worldview was formed while studying in Canada, England, France and Germany in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when the Cold War was already ending.

Schlesinger's theories deserve to be revisited. They explain what's happening in the world today and how Latin America will change for the better when future generations take charge.

(Alexandre Marinis, political economist and founding partner of Mosaico Economia Politica, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Alexandre Marinis in Sao Paulo at amarinis1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 11, 2009 21:01 EDT

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You should listen more than you sell

A sales conversation or call shouldn't start with your pitch. You should never offer your products or services without first getting a clear understanding of the potential client's needs and desired outcome.

Sales professional will always listen twice, maybe even three times more than they speak. As a small business owner, you need to be sales professional. You are the face of your business. You are not only selling your product or service, you are selling yourself. There are some basic sales skills that you should not only practice; but also perfect. Getting a handle on these skills and making them a habit will help your product or service sell themselves.

First, listen, listen and listen some more. Before you offer any professional opinion or advice, really listen to your potential client's concerns, needs and desired results. Let them speak without interrupting and have them elaborate when you are unclear or don't understand. This requires dialogue not a monologue. Engage your customer in problem solving dialogue by asking intelligent and open-ended questions to draw out the real issues. Never guess what their needs are, let them tell you. There will be plenty of opportunity for you to discuss things from your perspective.

Acknowledge that you have not only heard their concerns but clearly understand them. Be sure you speak to them in a clear straightforward manner without jargon or rhetoric. Reflect back on what you have heard by summarizing your client's points. Follow-up with questions of your own to clarify your understanding; seeking first to understand and then to be understood.

Ask what their desired outcome looks like. Don't be afraid to encourage and endorse your client's good ideas; but offer them a new perspective. Explain what it will be like working with you and using your product or services. Give them examples of how you have assisted other clients and achieved their desired outcomes. Let them know what they can expect and what will happen. Do you offer a guarantee? Be specific. What are the terms of service? Be clear about your business process. And now is not the time to shy about your expertise and capacity.

It's time to close the deal. Ask for the sale. Be confident in your product or service and your ability to meet your client's needs. Be assertive and give them solid reasons why they should work with you and INVITE them to take action now and get started. Do not say, "what do you think?" Encourage them to take advantage of this opportunity to buy from you or work with you.

Prepare yourself for your next sales conversation. Refrain from verbally assaulting your clients and spend more time listening. Have some open-ended questions already prepared. Know what aspects of your business you are going to highlight that will benefit the client. Speak with assurance. No one likes to be "sold to." Everyone wants to be heard and listened to. This is especially true in sales.

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Perú Factoring. Carta al director, diario Gestión

Carta al director publicada en el diario Gestión (18.8.09)

Perú Factoring
En la nota 'El programa de factoring lanzado por el gobierno en mayo no opera', publicada hace unos días, se hace referencia a modificaciones que COFIDE, el MEF, Produce y la SBS están trabajando para el funcionamiento de Perú Factoring.

En ella la ministra de Producción Mercedes Araoz afirma necesitar introducir cambios en el actual marco legislativo para que el servicio de factoring impulsado por su portafolio funcione. La ministra, y es lógico pensar que sus asesores, esperan que las facturas adquieran mérito ejecutivo para facilitar su cobranza, al igual que una letra de cambio. Sin embargo, parecen perder de vista que el marco legal existente no es obstáculo, ya que no es necesario que las facturas adquieran carácter de documentos ejecutivos para ser descontables por quienes las emiten.

Así como el Ministerio de Producción, nuestra empresa Value Investments Perú también se encuentra trabajando en un servicio electrónico de descuento y negociación de facturas. En nuestro caso se trata de facturas conformadas (título valor que cuenta con la conformidad y fecha de pago cierta por parte del cliente obligado al pago de la factura) y su implementación contempla el marco legal de la actual Ley de Títulos y Valores. Quizá el portafolio de la ministra Aráoz podría no requerir modificar la ley actual para sacar adelante el programa de factoring que impulsa. El mérito ejecutivo de las facturas es un aspecto legal que no se ha cerrado desde hace más de una década y es muy posibe que tampoco se logre, puesto que una factura no tiene medios para certificar que será pagada.

Héctor Gaudry
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Private equity suffers worst year on record-study

LONDON, July 31 (Reuters) - Private equity returns saw their steepest declines on record in 2008, down by over a quarter as the value of firms' investment portfolios tumbled in the wake of the credit crisis, according to a study published on Thursday.

Private equity firms took the knife to company valuations last year as falling stock markets and poor earnings outlooks forced them to pare back the value of their investments.

Private equity returns fell 27.6 percent in 2008, exceeding the decline of 9.1 percent seen in 2002 at the height of the dotcom bubble, consultancy Preqin said.

But there are signs of value returning to the sector, Preqin said.

"December 31, 2008 represented a low point for the private equity industry, but early data from March 2009 already confirms that the industry is already recovering," Etienne Paresys, head of performance and general partner data, said in a statement.

Leading European buyout house BC Partners [BCPRT.UL] recently wrote up its current fund by 22.4 percent for the first half of 2009, returning it to par value, a source familiar with the situation said. [ID:nLR165894]

Private equity firms are sitting on over $1 trillion of "dry powder" -- capital committed but as yet unspent -- waiting to be invested when conditions improve, said Preqin. (reporting by William James and Simon Meads; editing by David Cowell)

© Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this website for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.

Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

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Fwd: Venture capital en el Perú: Alternativas para sostener el crecimiento de nuestras empresas (PAD)

Con una notable presencia de egresados, el PAD inició, el pasado 28 de abril, el Programa de Continuidad 2009. La primera sesión denominada "Venture capital en el Perú: Alternativas para sostener el crecimiento de nuestras empresas" estuvo presidida por Mario Giuffra, Director del Centro de Emprendimiento del PAD. El evento contó con la participación de destacados funcionarios de sociedades administradoras de fondos de inversión, entre ellos: la Sra. Martha del Río de AC Capitales Safi, Mario Stuva de Valinvest, y Abraham Vurnbrand, Director Gerente de Maestro Home Center, quien presentó el caso de éxito de su empresa.

Al inicio de su presentación, Martha del Río dio unas breves nociones sobre Private Equity (PE), destacando la importancia de recurrir a fondos privados de inversión para incrementar el valor del activo en las empresas, haciéndolas crecer, optimizando de esta manera sus operaciones, su estructura de capital y reforzando su posición competitiva frente a otras empresas. Asimismo, señaló que las mejores gestoras de fondos se caracterizan por su capacidad de generar retornos superiores, independientemente del tamaño de sus fondos, de su grado de diversificación o de su ubicación geográfica.

A su turno Mario Stuva, señaló que el enfoque de Valinvest, se orienta hacia el segmento de empresas medianas en etapas de desarrollo temprano y medio. De esta forma resaltó la importancia de contar, previo a la incursión de nuevos capitales, con un "Acuerdo de Accionistas", donde queden delimitadas herramientas de control y esquemas de salida definidos, sobre todo en la compleja gestión de empresas familiares.

En el Perú, el exitoso caso de Maestro Home Center, es uno de los más representativos. En un mercado donde el negocio del retail era apenas emergente, la perspectiva de continuar con una línea de negocio extranjera, se vio en la necesidad de replantearse. La estrategia comercial de optar por el modelo norteamericano era obsoleta, cuando el mayor conocimiento del negocio del retail en Latinoamérica se encontraba en Chile, resaltó Abraham Vurnbrand.

Asimismo, manifestó que no encontró mejor salida que abrir el capital de la empresa, para diferenciarse de la competencia del vecino país del sur. En agosto del 2007 recibió un aporte de capital del Grupo Enfoca, lo que le permitió acelerar sus planes de expansión tanto en Lima como en provincias.

Al finalizar la sesión, Vurnbrand destacó la necesidad de "asesorarse bien" antes de tomar cualquier decisión de venta de acciones. Si es una empresa familiar, preparar a los miembros que la conforman, principalmente a los integrantes del directorio, para hacer frente a los cambios que se puedan producir, sin que ello afecte el buen gobierno corporativo en el desarrollo del negocio.

Ver fotos

Ver presentación "Valinvest SAFI"

Ver presentación "Private Equity Motor de Desarrollo Empresarial"

Ver presentación "Caso de éxito usando Venture Capital Maestro Home Center"

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Bullets: Corn (Linked 2 Leadership)

Posted on July 27, 2009 by Dr Richard Norris

How to lead yourself and your organization in sales in any economy?

Use corn not bullets!

If we listen to the media things are apparently tough out there.

If we listen to most other business people things are apparently tough out there.

If you listen to your friends and family things are apparently tough out there.

Really?! Then why is it that you can read the Financial Times and watch CNN and read and see reports on businesses that are booming? Sure they may be an counter-cyclical market like infrastructure and be funded by government programs. Then again there are businesses who are even bucking that trend.

Most people would agree that a New Order is is required for the way business goes about things. For the past 10 or so years there has been unprecedented growth in many markets. What has happened is a resetting of the baseline (and it is not finished yet).  A new foundation level must be created to prepare for the next period of growth which, by the way, will happen. It always does. But are you taking the right approach to prepare for it?

A Brave New World

The smart organizations see what is happening as a time of evolution where patience, prudence and wisdom are required with a healthy mix of boldness. They see the market as a boon and are prepared to take advantage of the market situation and the adversity that is hitting their competitors. Now is their time to gain marketshare and exploit the misfortunes of their not-so-bright competition.They have entered the vista of Corn Leadership

The not-so-bright organizations see only problems such as scarcity, tough times, greater competition. Why? They are afraid. They are unprepared, they are panicking and they are stuck in the old paradigm of Bullet Leadership.

What the difference? It is all a matter of perceptions and perspective. Both forms of leadership can best be explained by the behavior of a herd of deer in relation to bullets versus corn.

Stop Firing

Traditional approaches to sales leadership involve "hunting strategies" like cold-calling, mass-mailing, bold-calling and even some networking to name a few.  You will often hear such leaders use the terms, "we are seeking new business" or "we are busy chasing leads" or "we are hunting down new prospects".

All fairly aggressive terms. All typical of mankind's wiring from our early days of having to hunt for our food.

So. Think of a herd of deer. Quietly grazing in a sunlit forest glade. Then all of al sudden, "BLAM!". A rifle shot is herd. Alas! One poor deer is felled. The rest of the herd scatters. Nowhere to be seen. No second shot. Gone.

The hunter, who had spent all night in the cold tracking, waiting and shivering, may have cause to celebrate his or her short-term victory, but the "kill" may only provide food for a week or a month. Then the hunter has to do it all again. The cycle continues with ongoing risk of their being no deer or the season runs out. Time, energy and resources are constantly being stretched all for short-term gains. Highly inefficient in the medium and long-term.

Bullet leaders are selfish. They think predominantly of themselves first and, perhaps, only. They are takers. They operate from a place of scarcity.

Where is the big picture thinking?

Start Sowing

Corn leadership uses "corn strategies" such as referral marketing, networking with a pay it forward approach, contradeals and cocktail or themed soirees to name a few. Corn leaders understand, especially in today's economy, the importance of thinking as a deer first.

Unlike a hunter who thinks of his or her needs, a corn leader or sower thinks of the deer's needs.

Deer need to eat. So they go into the foret and start sowing corn in the areas where there is evidence that deer live.  Initially they sow leaving corn strategically for the deer. Then they distance themselves and observe the behaviour of the herd. First one or two deer appear and tentatively sniff and then eat the corn. Then others begin to follow. Soon the whole herd emerges.

By repeating this pattern eventually a time comes to begin to lay a trail of corn. By this time the deer are calm, less wary and more trusting. The herd follows the trail. With patience and the right supply of corn eventually the deer will come and feed from the sower's hand and the sower can lead the herd into a coral where they can be properly cared for and farmed.

No bullets required – the way of the warrior. Just corn – the way of the farmer.

Corn leaders are selfless. They think predominantly of others first – their clients, their team and beyond. They are givers. They understand "give and you shall receive". They operate from a place of abundance and understand the law of attraction.

Truth Be Told

Which has been your preference? Bullet leadership or Corn leadership? Which type of leader does your market, your business and your people require today and in the future? What changes are you prepared to make to move beyond survival to thriving?

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Enrique, los bisílabos y la reunión del G-8 en L'Aquila

Leopoldo Abadía

Con tanto viaje, llevo tiempo sin "subir"  a San Quirico. Este fin de semana he subido. Todo está igual. El sábado hizo frío y tuvimos que poner un rato la calefacción.

 

Cenamos donde siempre, igual de bien que siempre. Vamos a la Misa de  siempre, pero en una capilla cercana, porque están pintando nuestra iglesia.

 

Pasa la bandeja Enrique.  Es uno de los de siempre.  Esta vez va acompañado de una nieta suya, de 6 o 7 años, muy maja. La niña lleva la cestita donde vamos echando los euros. La gente es generosa. Se ven billetes bonitos.

 

Nada nuevo. Pero me doy cuenta de que Enrique, cuando alguien le pone dinero en la cestita, dice "gracias". Y como ponemos dinero todos, nos dice a todos "gracias". Y, como es natural, la niña lo  oye.

 

Cuando acaban, van a la sacristía y dejan allí el dinero. Les veo salir. El abuelo, serio. La niña, sonriente. Resplandeciente. Ha hecho algo importante.

 

Pues sí. Pero el que ha hecho algo importante es Enrique, porque, durante 10 minutos, ha estado educando a la niña y nos ha estado educando a nosotros. Y, además, no se ha dado cuenta de que lo hacía.

 

Esa niña ha aprendido a decir "gracias". Seguramente lo sabía de antes,  pero su abuelo se lo ha remachado. Y los demás hemos recordado que hay que decir "gracias".

 

Leo muchas cosas sobre el fracaso escolar, sobre los problemas de los maestros en las escuelas (antes, "maestro de escuela" era un piropo), sobre las actitudes de los padres que piensan que dejando a un niño en un colegio ya está educado, que cuando van a hablar con los profesores de  los colegios les amenazan, que cuando acompañan a sus hijos a hacer deporte, les gritan: "¡Estás acabado! ¡A por él!, ¡Al suelo, al suelo!" (o sea, "¡ponle la zancadilla, que se te escapa!").

 

Y me acuerdo de un amigo mío, experto en temas de educación -y en muchas otras cosas- que me decía que en un colegio, lo primero que hay que hacer es educar a los padres, lo segundo a los profesores y lo tercero, a los chicos.

 

Y ese mismo amigo me recordaba que la educación se recibe en la familia y que el colegio, por muy bueno que sea, no es más que un complemento de lo que se haga en casa.

 

Y es verdad. Estoy seguro de que la nieta de mi amigo dice  "gracias" cuando su madre le pone la comida y cuando su padre le compra unos chuches. Y si no lo hace porque se olvida, allí está su abuelo para recordárselo de ese modo que hemos oído tantas veces: "¿Qué se dice? Gra…" Y el niño acaba "cias".

 

Comento esto por teléfono con mi vecino de  San Quirico, que me ha mandado un mail que decía: "¿Cuándo vas a dejar de hacer tonterías y venir a desayunar?"

 

Me dice que en la Misa  del domingo anterior sucedió lo mismo. Esta vez no era Enrique el que pasaba el cestito. Era otro, que iba solo, sin nieta. Pero también decía "gracias".

 

Lo de siempre. Que esto de la educación no lo arregla una nueva Ley de Educación, aunque esté consensuada/pasteleada por unos y otros y todos digan que es una maravilla. Que el tema es mucho más difícil, porque es más profundo.

 

En un plató de televisión, mientras esperaba mi turno, me dijo uno de los que trabajan en el programa cuando oyó lo que decía uno de los invitados: "¡Qué mal hablamos!, ¿verdad?"

 

Pues sí, hablamos mal. La velocidad de tacos/blasfemia por minuto ha subido. Antes se decía aquello de "hablas como un carretero", porque parece que los carreteros, cuando una mula no quería andar o se tumbaba, intentaban convencerle con argumentos cortos, secos y contundentes.

 

Ya no hay carros  ni mulas. Ya no hay carreteros. Pero cuando en la sala VIP de un aeropuerto o en preferente del AVE encuentras a un señor muy elegante,  muy repeinado, trabajando en su ordenador, hablando por teléfono y soltando groserías, piensas que el carretero, por lo menos, no tenía  cultura.

 

Pero es que el del ordenador, tampoco. Ya  sé que es Master por algún sitio. Pero no tiene cultura. No es  presentable.

 

En esto de  la revolución civil que me obsesiona un poco, me parece que las  familias  se lo tienen que plantear. Que no es  cuestión de  dinero. Es cuestión de una cierta riqueza de vocabulario, tampoco demasiada.

 

Las familias tienen que empezar hablando bien en casa. Porque si aprenden a hablar bien en casa, hablarán bien en el trabajo, y no repetirán bisílabos con tanta frecuencia. Quizá hay que empezar poniéndose metas alcanzables y poco ambiciosas. Por ejemplo, en vez de decir eso 15 veces al día, vamos a intentar decirlo sólo 10. Y cuando llevemos así dos semanas, a ver si conseguimos decirlo sólo 8 veces. Y, de ese modo, poco a poco, hasta hablaremos bien.

 

Y quizá consigamos que este esfuerzo se contagie a los que trabajan con nosotros, a los proveedores y a los clientes.

 

Y, puestos a soñar, hasta es posible que todos ellos hablen bien en casa y que, cuando vayan con los niños a ver cómo juegan al fútbol, lleguen a pensar que lo importante es participar, como dicen que decía el Barón de Coubertin. Y que, cuando vean que su niño no lleva camino de ser Cristiano Ronaldo, le griten. "¡Ánimo, que tú puedes!" Y de ánimo en ánimo, y de finura en finura, hasta conseguimos que la Ley de Educación -la que sea-  sirva para algo.

 

 

P.S.

 

LOS BISÍLABOS

 

1. Digo lo de los bisílabos porque la palabra  "hostia", que tiene dos sílabas, se repite de forma abrumadoramente molesta. Ya sabéis que para los católicos, "la Hostia" es el Cuerpo de Cristo.
2. Por eso, cuando una exclamación puede molestar -de hecho, molesta, y mucho- a gente que tiene unas determinadas creencias, no hay por qué utilizarla.
3. No puedo creer que haya dos tipos de gente: los católicos y los groseros.
4. Porque, además, temo que alguno de los groseros sea católico.

 

LA PARIDAD

 

5. Cuando en el artículo utilizo sólo el género masculino, es porque en castellano se usa ese género para referirse a hombres y mujeres.
6. Pero quizá debería haber puesto hombres y mujeres, padres y madres, profesores y profesoras, chicos y chicas, etc., porque con frecuencia voy por la calle y oigo a algunas mozas decir cosas que harían enrojecer al carretero que he  citado antes.

 

ES DE BIEN NACIDOS

 

7. Leo que el Presidente  Zapatero, al acabar la reunión del G-8, que se ha celebrado en l´Aquila, donde hubo un terremoto muy fuerte hace poco, ha dado las gracias a Berlusconi por haberle invitado.
8. Señor Presidente: eso es buena educación. Quizá le  han llegado  los influjos de mi amigo Enrique. Pero no creo que haya sido eso. Estoy seguro de que se lo enseñaron sus padres. ¡Muy bien, sí señor!

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La economía peruana ya tocó fondo y ahora empieza a recuperarse

El ministro de Economía y Finanzas, Luis Carranza, se mostró optimista y estimó que el PBI nacional crecerá 3% para este año

(Andina).- El Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas (MEF) mantiene su proyección de crecimiento del Producto Bruto Interno del Perú en 3% para este año pues la desaceleración económica en el país ya tocó fondo y empieza a recuperarse, afirmó el titular del sector, Luis Carranza.

"En el segundo trimestre la economía peruana ya tocó fondo y debería empezar la recuperación en el tercer y cuarto trimestres del año, no sólo por las políticas fiscales del gobierno sino también impulsada por la política monetaria", subrayó.

Carranza sostuvo que las proyecciones de crecimiento de la economía peruana para este año de 3% son referenciales, y que si hubiera alguna revisión de la cifra se daría a conocer en agosto, cuando se envíe el proyecto de Ley de Presupuesto del Sector Público para el Año Fiscal 2010 al Congreso de la República.

En ese entonces, el MEF realizará una actualización del Marco Macroeconómico Multianual (MMM) y se podrían realizar los ajustes necesarios de la cifra, precisó.

El ministro dijo que pese a que todavía no existe una información directa abundante acerca del comportamiento del PBI en junio, se puede decir que en el primer semestre del año la economía peruana creció 1%.

"Si en el primer semestre terminamos creciendo 1%, se necesitaría crecer en el segundo semestre alrededor de 5% para llegar a la proyección de 3% a fines de año", aclaró.

ESTE AÑO EL PERÚ REGISTRARÁ CRECIMIENTO
El ministro señaló que lo importante es que el país terminará este año con crecimiento, mientras que los estimados de analistas internacionales es que la economía de la región en su conjunto caerá en 2%.

Destacó que para analizar la economía es importante tener en cuenta las tendencias de largo plazo y entender si existen fenómenos puntuales que se pueden revertir o si hay fenómenos permanentes que pudieran afectarla y, en ese caso, se aplican las medicinas necesarias.

Indicó que en los últimos meses del año pasado el intercambio comercial cayó drásticamente, pero se ha ido recuperando desde el primer trimestre del 2009 y ha sido más acentuado en el segundo trimestre.

"La Bolsa de Valores de Lima también ha tenido una recuperación importante, las tasas de interés han empezado a bajar con la política monetaria y esto ha llevado al impulso del crédito también", destacó.

Finalmente, Carranza sostuvo que los inventarios se han ido quemando a lo largo de la primera parte del año pues el consumo siguió al mismo ritmo, y las empresas tendrán que incrementar su producción.

Fuente: El Comercio 17 julio 2009 Seguir leyendo

Negociar facturas en el mercado de capitales es casi una realidad

SE CONSTITUIRÁN EN INSTRUMENTOS DE INVERSIÓN QUE SE NEGOCIARÁN A TRAVÉS DE CAVALI

Está todo listo para que se empiecen a negociar facturas a través de la plataforma de negociación de Ivale. Mediante este mecanismo, los proveedores de grandes empresas cobrarán más rápido a través de un descuento a sus facturas, las mismas que Ivale consolidará en paquetes de S/.500.000 que podrán ser adquiridos por cualquier inversionista que busque una tasas de interés atractiva. El rendimiento del instrumento estará determinado por el descuento que acepte el proveedor al vender su factura.

"Ya tenemos todo en orden con CAVALI y con los proveedores. Iremos avanzando a medida que estos se vayan afiliando (...) incluso tenemos a los demandantes institucionales de este tipo de papel (...) y solo trabajamos con empresas de calificación triple A", asegura Lizardo Vargas, gerente general de Value Investment, la empresa que ha desarrollado este servicio.

Con ello, esta empresa espera, además de generar una curva de rendimiento de los proveedores obligados a pagar (con lo que podrán negociar mejores tasas con el sistema financiero), ofrecer al mercado nuevos instrumentos de inversión que, así como van las cosas, no vienen mal.

El Comercio 13 julio 2009

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Entrevista al economista Ricardo V. Lago, sobre el actual estado y proyecciones de la economía peruana (Semana Económica)

Por: Por Héctor Collantes

Ricardo V. Lago  es economista español,  profesor de universidad y bloguea con nosotros sobre economía local peruana desde mayo de este año, en el blog "El Nuevo Sol". Asimismo, fue director general de Economía del  Banco Europeo de Reconstrucción y Desarrollo, y alto funcionario del Banco Mundial, el BID, y del gobierno de México. Además, es estudioso entusiasta de  la economía peruana desde hace 20  años. Tal vez por eso se atreve a ir contra la corriente. "A más de uno le recomendaría  releer  o leer  a Frédéric Bastiat", sugiere Lago.

 

¿Cuán efectivo será el plan de estímulo peruano?
 
Creo que un 35% se va a filtrar en importaciones y el  65% que queda impactará de acuerdo con el valor del multiplicador del gasto publico  (cuántos soles del PBI  generan un sol de gasto público). En una economía  "grande" y en recesión profunda como Estados Unidos, Japón o Alemania, uno puede conjeturar  que el multiplicador pueda llegar a ser mayor a 1. En el diseño del plan de estímulo de Obama han partido de un supuesto de 1.5.  Hay economistas académicos muy respetados (antikeynesianos), como Robert  Barro, que defienden que en realidad históricamente el multiplicador en EEUU nunca ha excedido a 0.8. Creo que en el  Perú de hoy el multiplicador del gasto público no excede a 0.5, pues es una economía  "pequeña" (tan sólo produce US$2 de cada 1,000 de  la economía mundial), muy abierta, y  que no está en recesión profunda  y mucho menos en depresión .Por consiguiente, algunos de los recursos / factores de producción que vienen atraídos por el mayor gasto publico son substraídos parcialmente  de procesos de producción de otros sectores, lo que se conoce como "efecto desplazamiento" o "crowding out" . Estamos hablando de economía, no de aritmética.  Además, es un fenómeno conocido,  inherente a la naturaleza humana y de ningún modo  exclusivo del Perú, que cuando uno gasta fondos ajenos, siempre una parte del dinero se queda por el camino. 
 
¿No le parece que se está gastando muy lentamente?

Estoy convencido de que las críticas al ritmo del gasto del MEF no están justificadas. No se trata de gastar mucho y con rapidez, sino de que no falte el dinero para gastar bien. Y ahí es donde radica  parte del meollo de la cuestión: ¿Qué quiere decir gastar bien? Lo que para ti es  gastar bien, para mí puede ser malgastar. Esta dicotomía no existe cuando el gasto es familiar, privado y soberano. La cifra global de gasto público no me inspira mucho entusiasmo, no es lo mismo alcanzar ésta repartiendo billetes de S/.20 a cada transeúnte en la Plaza de San Martín, que dotando de un ordenador a cada aula de cada escuela del Perú. No contribuye del mismo modo al PBI  y al crecimiento económico la construcción de una carretera sin evaluación de la inversión que un gasto equivalente en un proyecto no sujeto a  tal filtro. No trivialicemos. El MEF ha  procurado que no se malgaste el dinero del erario y eso es lo correcto, incluso a riesgo de que el ritmo de gasto sea más lento. Me consta que el ex ministro Valdivieso invirtió tres meses en identificar los 60 mejores  proyectos de inversión pública (de acuerdo con análisis y  evaluación) y los seis mejores de gasto social. El ministro Carranza ha ampliado la lista y agilizado los procedimientos a medida que empeoraba la economía mundial. Se han preocupado por no caer en el populismo; han seguido el enfoque riguroso. Por otra parte, ninguno de los  organismos internacionales o  bancos de inversión pronostica que el Perú vaya a entrar en una recesión profunda; por tanto, no se puede suponer que el gasto público no desplace y/o  encarezca el gasto privado (crowding out). Además, la efectividad de la inversión pública dependerá de cuánto puedan asimilar con eficiencia sus ejecutores y receptores, pues se parte de una capacidad gerencial y técnica limitadas.
 
Muchos de los constructores todavía están ocupados con contratos privados. Hace dos meses, un amigo empresario me abrió sus libros y me mostró las cifras de invitaciones a licitación de obra convocadas por el sector privado. En la serie mensual se detectaba una rápida caída entre octubre y febrero, y de ahí una  fuerte recuperación a partir de marzo. Asimismo, como hay desfases entre la decisión y la ejecución del gasto público, parte de  las medidas de estímulo podrían empezar a surtir efecto cuando la economía esté en fase de  recuperación y al superponerse con ésta podrían alimentar la inflación e incluso un fuerte desequilibrio en la balanza de pagos.  
 
¿Coincide con otros analistas en que la tasa de interés demoró mucho en reducirse?
 
Si el BCR hubiera reducido tasa de interés prematuramente, el Perú hubiera corrido el riesgo de caer en una crisis cambiaria. Cierto que las reservas de divisas son elevadísimas, pero, ojo, que en una situación de pánico nadie se cree nada ni se fía de nadie. Todos somos incrédulos, de lo contrario que se lo pregunten a los inversionistas ricos y menos ricos que confiaron su dinero a muchos sesudos y "sofisticados" fondos de inversión  y no digamos aquellos que invirtieron con los Madoff y Stanford  de este mundo.
 
Entre setiembre del 2008  y mayo  del 2009, se acrecentó repentinamente la preferencia de  los inversionistas por la "tradicional seguridad " de los bonos del Tesoro  estadounidense. Para retener los capitales en  el  sistema financiero peruano no había otra opción más que pagarles una prima de riesgo suficiente (mantener la  tasa de interés al 6.5%).  Pero en paralelo, en ocho meses, el BCR inyectó un monto liquidez adicional en el sistema equivalente al doble del circulante y 100% de la cantidad de dinero (M1) para que los bancos mantuvieran un ritmo razonable de crecimiento en el crédito y pudieran hacer frente a posibles retiros de depósitos. La inyección nunca es "gratis", pues se pierden  divisas, mermaron de un nivel de US$36,000 a uno de US$30,000 millones –ahora están repuntando otra vez al alza– pero fue una buena inversión y apuesta porque el BCR pudo mantener la estabilidad cambiaria con un costo moderado de reservas.

 
Los bancos centrales de México, Brasil y Chile, entre otros, no corrieron la misma suerte. Los brasileños y sobre todo los mexicanos, perdieron en pulso contra el mercado y tuvieron que devaluar sus monedas alrededor del 40%, las pérdidas de  reservas cayeron en saco roto. Los chilenos  tomaron la decisión de dejar caer el valor del peso –casi un 50%–  frente al dólar antes que incurrir en pérdidas de reservas. La ironía es que ahora sus monedas se están apreciando, es decir,  sobredevaluaron primero y ahora los tipos de cambio van de regreso hacia abajo. La excesiva volatilidad cambiaria tiene efectos negativos en los balances y flujos de caja de muchas empresas. Esta es una de las razones que han empujado a estas economías a la recesión. Sin embargo, el BCR consideró que la solidez financiera del país era suficiente para  aguantar el pulso al mercado y  lo logró, evitando  una maxidevaluación. A posteriori, podemos decir, que el diagnóstico  y el enfoque del  BCRP fueron los acertados.

 
El Banco Central de Chile pudo empezar a bajar agresivamente las tasas de interés desde el 8% en diciembre del 2008 hasta el 1% en mayo porque la moneda estaba muy cobijada por una devaluación acumulada del 50% entre abril y noviembre. Es decir, había pagado el costo de la devaluación de partida. El BCR no pudo iniciar la reducción de tasas hasta marzo porque el sol apenas se había devaluado moderadamente, 20%, y la caída de su  valor se mantuvo hasta febrero. No tenía el resguardo de una maxidevaluación precisamente por haber sido capaz de evitarla. Desde marzo hasta junio –una vez consolidada la confianza, estabilizada la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos, y  con la preferencia por los bonos del Tesoro de EEUU en reversa– el BCR ha podido reducir las tasas de 6.5% al 3%. Las tasas de Brasil y México aún siguen en niveles más altos que las peruanas, las primeras al 9% y las segundas al 5%.

 
Algunos dicen que "como no ha habido crisis cambiaria, debieron empezar a bajar las tasas de interés antes", pero yo me pregunto: ¿cómo puede uno suponer que no habría  habido una  crisis cambiaria, si se hubieran bajado las tasas cuando todavía cundía el pánico y reinaba la preferencia por los bonos del Tesoro de EEUU? A los críticos yo les recomendaría leer o releer  el libro Lo que se ve y lo que no se ve, del economista  francés de principios del XIX, Frédéric Bastiat, está disponible on-line y en castellano. Lo que se ve es que no hubo crisis  cambiaria, y lo que no se ve es lo que hubiera pasado con una reducción prematura de tasas. En otras palabras, hablar por hablar es gratis.
 
¿Qué opina de la gestión de Julio Velarde a la cabeza del BCR?
 
Velarde no lo cuenta  porque es discreto y modesto. En agosto de 1990, Julio Velarde, con la ayuda de  Martha Rodríguez, Javier de la Rocha (que en paz esté), Renzo Rossini, Marilyn Choy y el equipo del Banco Central pararon en seco la hiperinflación. Por aquellos días Velarde era el presidente  de facto del banco, pues el presidente nombrado, Jorge Chávez, estaba terminando su doctorado en Oxford. Velarde es uno de los no más de cien banqueros centrales de la historia de la humanidad que han parado una hiperinflación, que es la anomalía más grave que puede sufrir una economía. Tener a alguien así en el timón inspira mucha confianza.
 
Como he explicado anteriormente, la política monetaria del BCR durante la crisis actual ha sido de "libro de texto" y, a juzgar por los resultados superiores a las de los otros países de la región, será un caso de estudio durante muchos años. Los académicos y analistas del exterior la ensalzan, es paradójico que haya tanto crítico dentro del país. Aplauso en la calle y bofetada en la casa. ¡Curioso!  ¿O no? Yo le daría a Velarde una puntuación de 19.8 y no 20 por aquello de que "sólo Alá es perfecto".
 

¿Usted siempre fue "optimista" respecto al Perú?
 
Empecé a trabajar con el Perú en 1987 y hasta 1993, siempre con una óptica entusiasta, pero con la sensación de que esto era frágil y posiblemente reversible. En setiembre del 2008 me convierto de entusiasta en optimista, al presenciar que, en el peor momento de la economía mundial en siete décadas, el edificio económico construido por los peruanos durante dos décadas aguanta el sismo con holgura  y sin necesidad de apuntalamientos artificiales. En este contexto, volver a los esquemas de activismo voluntarista con el gasto público y el dinero barato representa un viaje peligroso al pasado, además de trivializar el funcionamiento del complejo engranaje que es el sistema económico.
 
Comparto la preocupación por el alivio a la pobreza y el progreso social de los sectores desfavorecidos. Hay que hacer más en política social, con mayor rapidez, más eficiencia, y más evaluación externa independiente. Pero reconozco que se han logrado metas muy importantes. El que el Perú haya aguantado bien la sacudida internacional, con cuentas fiscales ordenadas, sin crisis cambiarias, ni quiebras de bancos o empresas, protege el empleo y, por ende, favorece a los sectores populares. Se ha logrado que en el 2008, el peor año de la economía internacional, se gradúen de la línea de pobreza un 3% adicional de peruanos, unos 760,000 seres humanos. ¿Cuántos países pueden mostrar un resultado comparable?
 
¿Cómo pueden venderse mejor estos logros?
 
Si tienes talento y encantos pero no eres lo suficientemente "sexy" –por falta de tamaño, pues no eres una economía BRIC– debes preocuparte más por exhibirte y cuanto más mejor. El anuncio de la emisión de un bono soberano en octubre del 2008 en Washington DC y el subsiguiente road show de diciembre y enero fueron  ejercicios de altísima rentabilidad para el país, y completamente malentendidos en Lima. Es cierto que el ministro Valdivieso pudo haberlo explicado mejor hacia adentro. Pero nadie en la asamblea anual del FMI en octubre se esperaba que ningún país emergente saliera a anunciar que tenía la confianza de poder colocar un bono con éxito es un mercado financiero moribundo. 
 
Me contaron que durante el road show los interlocutores se preguntaban: "bien, si el ministro de Economía y el presidente del Banco Central están aquí en Londres debe ser cierto que no tienen fuegos que apagar en casa", además, "si no necesitan el dinero ¿para qué quieren emitir un bono?", y la respuesta: "¡Pues, muy sencillo, para que analicen en detalle la calidad de la mercancía que traemos!". A la semana del anuncio de octubre ya había 10 bancos de inversión estudiando en detalle las finanzas del Perú y viajando a Lima a ofrecer sus servicios de asesoría e intermediación. 
 
Si la estrategia hubiera sido equivocada, el ministro Carranza habría abandonado el empeño de emitir el bono. A mi juicio, si el bono se hubiese emitido antes y a un plazo más largo, habría tenido más resonancia. A lo mejor hubiera costado algo más caro, aunque no está claro, ya que, aunque la prima de riesgo país del Perú era más alta, la tasa base –sobre la que se aplica ésta, que es la tasa de los bonos del Tesoro de EEUU– también era más baja. En cualquier caso, la publicidad nunca es gratis. 
 
¿Los disturbios en la selva afectaron esa imagen internacional?
 
Creo que instigadores externos de los disturbios trataron de manipular las demandas genuinas de los nativos para asestar un golpe bajo a la economía y hacerla caer en recesión, aprovechando de manera oportunista y miserable la pésima coyuntura internacional. Pero no han tenido éxito, han prevalecido el estado de derecho y la concertación. 
 
Los disturbios han contribuido a unos días de prensa negativa para el Perú, pero eso es todo. El efecto económico será efímero. Estoy convencido de que para el grueso de la población y del electorado del Perú, los "efectismos revolucionarios de los vendedores de ilusiones" no cuajan.

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