Peru will grow most among Latin America's top economies the next two years, the IMF forecasts. (LBC)

BY JOACHIM BAMRUD

Peru will have the fastest-growing GDP among Latin America's top economies both this and next year, the International Monetary Fund predicts in its latest World Economic Outlook released today.

Meanwhile, the fund revised up its forecasts for Brazil, the region's top economy, and it now predicts that Mexico, Latin America's second-largest economy, will leave recession next year.

Peru's GDP should expand by 1.5 percent this year and 5.8 percent next year, the IMF says.

BRAZIL AND MEXICO

Brazil's economy will likely fall by 0.7 percent this year. That's better than the IMF predicted earlier when it estimated a decline of 1.3 percent. Next year, Brazil's GDP should grow by 3.5 percent.
Mexico, however, will likely see a 7.3 percent decline this year before recovering next year with a 3.3 percent growth, the IMF says. All in all, Latin America's economies are expected to see 2.5 percent fall this year and a 2.9 percent expansion next year. Previously, the IMF had estimated a 2.6 percent decline in 2009 and a 2.3 percent expansion in 2010.

ARGENTINA AND VENEZUELA

Argentina, Latin America's third-largest economy, will see a GDP decline of 2.5 percent this year, but recover slightly next year with a 1.5 percent expansion. Venezuela, the fourth-largest economy, will see a decline of 2.0 percent this year and a further fall of 0.4 percent next year. That would make it the only country among the nine that will continue in recession into 2010. Colombia, the fifth-largest economy, should see a 0.3 percent GDP decline this year. Next year, its economy will likely expand by 2.5 percent, the IMF forecasts.

CHILE AND PANAMA

The fund expects Chile's economy to fall by 1.7 percent before growing at 4.0 percent next year. That's lower than the 5.0 percent 2010 forecast announced by Chile's finance minister Andres Velasco today. Panama, the 13th-largest economy in Latin America, will likely expand by 1.8 percent this year and 3.7 percent next year. Ecuador should see a 1.0 percent decline this year and 1.5 percent growth next year, while Uruguay's economy likely will expand by 0.6 percent in 2009 and 3.5 percent in 2010. Among smaller economies, Bolivia will post the highest growth this year (2.8 percent), followed by Haiti (2.0 percent). Next year, Paraguay will see the highest growth among smaller economies - 3.9 percent, the IMF forecasts.