sábado, 31 de julio de 2010

TLC con Unión Europea el 2011

El viceministro de Comercio Exterior, Eduardo Ferreyros, estimó que el Tratado de Libre Comercio (TLC) con la Unión Europea entraría en vigencia a mediados del 2011, según  cómo avancen las revisiones legales y la firma oficial.

"Ahora mismo estamos trabajando fuertemente en la revisión legal, pues nuestro objetivo es tener los textos listos para que los firme el ministro de Comercio Exterior y Turismo, Martín Pérez, lo más pronto posible", manifestó.

Fuente: Diario La República

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Riesgo país de Perú bajó tres puntos básicos a 1.64 puntos porcentuales en la víspera

  • Lima, jul. 30 (ANDINA). Siguiendo la tendencia regional, el riesgo país de Perú bajó tres puntos básicos pasando de 1.67 puntos porcentuales el miércoles pasado (28 de julio) a 1.64 puntos el día de jueves (29 de julio), según el EMBI+ Perú calculado por el banco de inversión JP Morgan. Cabe señalar que el 12 de junio del 2007 el Perú registró un nivel mínimo histórico de riesgo país al cerrar en 95 puntos básicos. El bajo nivel de riesgo país que presenta Perú responde al grado de inversión recibido de las tres principales agencias calificadoras.   

  • El EMBI+ Perú se mide en función de la diferencia del rendimiento promedio de los títulos soberanos peruanos frente al rendimiento del bono del Tesoro estadounidense. Así se estima el riesgo político y la posibilidad de que un país pueda incumplir con sus obligaciones de pago a los acreedores internacionales. Es decir, el riesgo país es el índice denominado Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) que mide el grado de "peligro" que entraña un país para las inversiones extranjeras. Las principales consecuencias de un alto nivel del riesgo país son una merma de las inversiones extranjeras y un crecimiento económico menor y todo esto puede significar desocupación y bajos salarios para la población. Para los inversores este índice es una orientación pues implica que el precio por arriesgarse a hacer negocios en determinado país es más o menos alto. Cuanto mayor es el riesgo menos proyectos de inversión son capaces de obtener una rentabilidad acorde con los fondos colocados y cuanto menor sea este índice el país se hace más atractivo para los inversionistas.

    (FIN) JJN/EBS


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Reservas aumentan $4,883 millones

EN ESTE AÑO, ANUNCIA EL BCR

31 de Julio del 2010


LIMA | 
Las Reservas Internacionales Netas (RIN) totalizaron $38,018 millones al viernes 23 de julio, cifra que muestra un aumento de 4,883 millones desde principios de este año, informó el Banco Central de Reserva (BCR). 
Indicó que el monto acumulado de las RIN muestra un aumento de $2,677 millones en lo que va de julio.
El aumento de las RIN registrado en julio en comparación al cierre de junio se debió principalmente a las compras de moneda extranjera en la Mesa de Negociación por 1,773 millones de dólares.
También se sustentó en el incremento de los depósitos del sistema financiero por $686 millones.
La posición de cambio del BCR (que forma parte de las RIN) al 23 de julio fue de 27,814 millones de dólares, monto mayor en 4,826 millones en relación con fines de 2009. 

(G.M.)
Fuente: Diario Correo
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miércoles, 28 de julio de 2010

Hispanic Market Hits Tipping Point

Demo Accounts for One in Six U.S. Residents, Nearly Half Are at Ease in English

NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- If you're looking to reach upholders of traditional American values, your best bet might be the Hispanic market.

The market is growing: The 2010 Census expected to count a record 50 million Hispanics, or one in every six U.S. residents, meaning the Hispanic population will have increased a stunning 42% from the previous census in 2000. (By comparison, the non-Hispanic population will have edged up just 5% in that decade.) It's also got scale: Hispanics are now the nation's second-largest consumer market after white non-Hispanics, who are still the largest group at about 200 million.

But perhaps the most remarkable aspect of Hispanics in America is how closely they exemplify our idealized concept of 1950s America. They are young (their median age is about where the whole nation was in 1955) and more often live in large, traditional, married-with-children families with lots of participation from grandparents.

More often than not, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they eat family meals at home, and spend less than average on alcohol. They're moving to the suburbs, tend to be community-oriented, and have high aspirations for their children. In short, they are the sweet market for consumer goods and services that the entire nation used to be when baby boomers were young.

Ad Age White Paper
Need more in-depth information on the Hispanic market? Just check in with Ad Age Insights, where you can purchase Peter Francese white paper, Hispanic America 2010, or copies of Ad Age's annual Hispanic Fact Pack.

Hispanic children are overwhelmingly U.S. born. Fully 91% of Hispanic children were born in the U.S., compared to only 47% of Hispanic adults, which has great implications for the demographic's speed of acculturation. With the Hispanic market at this tipping point, one of the biggest challenges for marketers is reaching young, acculturated bilingual Hispanics who behave differently than their parents who didn't grow up in the U.S. and don't spend as much time with Spanish-language media, but still feel a deep sense of Latino identity.

More than 1 in 3 Hispanics in the U.S. (34.3%) are children under 18 years old, as compared to fewer than one in four children (22.5%) that are non-Hispanics. The youthful U.S.-born Hispanic population means that children of immigrants, who typically attend public schools, where they learn English, will acculturate much faster than their parents did. And, in fact, English is making gradual gains as the language U.S. Hispanics are most comfortable speaking. Some 27% are most comfortable in English, with another 17% comfortable in both English and Spanish; meaning that nearly half—44%—of the demographic is at ease in English.

Over the next decade, as millions of bilingual Hispanic teens become young adults, we can expect their consumer behavior to move closer to other non-Hispanic young adults. However, the very large size of this segment suggests that the Hispanic culture is likely to remain strong, even among U.S.-born children.

The major difference between today's immigrants and those who have come before them is the phenomenon called globalization. Inexpensive air travel, the internet and native-language TV stations featuring content from country of origin all allow this group of immigrants to come to the U.S. and become acculturated but still have close ties to their home countries in ways that past immigrant groups could not. That is having and will continue to have a transformative effect on the U.S. culture, including music, food and sports, as illustrated by this year's World Cup fervor.

Hispanics will become a major force in U.S. consumer-spending growth over the next decade and beyond. The slowing growth and aging population that characterizes other segments of consumers means that younger and larger Hispanic families will be more vital to future growth in consumer spending than at any time in the past.

The Hispanic population is, on average, more than 10 years younger than the average for non-Hispanics. Their median age is just under 28, which means that 75% of adult Hispanics are age 18-49, compared to 56% of non-Hispanics. The household size of U.S. Hispanic families is the largest of any segment. The average Hispanic family has 4.0 members, compared to 2.9 members in the average white, non-Hispanic family. And only 4% of adult Hispanics live alone, compared to 15% of white non-Hispanics.

Hispanic consumers are the most geographically concentrated of any large consumer segment. The eight states with the most Hispanics are home to 76% of all U.S. Hispanics. About half of Hispanic consumers live in California and Texas. The other six states having more than one million Hispanics are Florida, New York, Illinois, Arizona, New Jersey and Colorado. By contrast, the eight states with the largest concentration of non-Hispanics have just 44% of that consumer segment.

By 2015, millions of baby boomers will have begun retiring, thus reducing their consumer spending. Hispanic consumers will play a major role in replacing those retirees in the consumer marketplace and will contribute to the upsurge of retail spending and economic growth.

And given their growing influence on this country's culture, perhaps one day we may be saying: "It's as American as dulce de leche."

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Peter Francese is the founder of American Demographics magazine and is Ogilvy & Mather's demographic-trends analyst.

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viernes, 23 de julio de 2010

Muhammad Yunus: empresas que resuelven los problemas del mundo

"Me suelen preguntar cuál fue la clave para crear un banco como Grameen Bank. Pues bien, mi respuesta es que yo no sabía nada de banca, y que si hubiese sabido más, quizá habría tenido que seguir las reglas convencionales", aseguró el premio Nobel de la Paz 2006 Muhammad Yunus en la sesión extraordinaria del Programa de Continuidad que ha tenido lugar hoy en el campus del IESE en Barcelona, con la presencia de SM la Reina Sofía y SAR el Príncipe Felipe de Borbón.

Yunus, que con el banco de su Bangladesh natal prácticamente inventó los conceptos de microcréditos y microfinanzas, añadió que "hice lo contrario de lo comúnmente establecido... y funcionó. Los bancos convencionales buscan a los hombres, nosotros buscamos a las mujeres. Los bancos convencionales buscan a los ricos, nosotros buscamos a los pobres, a los que no tienen nada, que son nuestro punto de partida".

Durante su conferencia, titulada "Building Business with Social Impact" ("Haciendo negocios con impacto social"), el banquero social insistió en la idea de que el mundo de los negocios ha tomado un camino equivocado al centrarse únicamente en ganar dinero, y no en resolver problemas. La crisis no ha sido únicamente financiera, dijo, sino también medioambiental y social, y más que en apurarse en salir de ella, sería mejor aprovechar la oportunidad que supone la crisis para arreglar el sistema.

"Los economistas han basado sus teorías en el egoísmo, pero los seres humanos también podemos ser altruistas. ¿Por qué no crear negocios basados en el altruismo, donde los beneficios son para los demás y no para mí?", se preguntó Yunus, que ha puesto en marcha hasta 40 empresas destinadas a resolver problemas diversos como la malnutrición, la falta de telecomunicaciones o de servicios sanitarios, y que jamás ha retenido acciones de las compañías.

Muhammad Yunus fundó el Grameen Bank, que ahora cuenta con 8 millones de clientes en Bangladesh, en 1976. También tiene sucursales en Nueva York, donde a pesar de las reticencias locales, el sistema de microcréditos también funciona: el 99% de ellos, cuya media es de 1.500 dólares, se devuelven, y son la única opción para los millones de norteamericanos pobres que no pueden abrir cuentas bancarias convencionales.

"Las empresas orientadas al beneficio crean empleo, sí, pero la razón de su existencia es ganar dinero. En los negocios sociales, en cambio, el único objetivo es crear puestos de trabajo. Un modelo es el de ganar dinero, pero nuestro modelo es el de cambiar el mundo", concluyó Yunus.

IESE, 2 de julio del 2010

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Odd currency crisis... Peruvian central bank intervenes in FX market... against the sol

Foreign investors are moving so much capital into Peru that the central bank is starting to intervene in the foreign currency market to buy dollars.  Yes, we have an emerging market country taking desperate measures to protect the value of their own currency, not from devaluing, but from overvaluing.  Irony on so many levels, but all an indication of how the world has changed.  It's becoming clearer that the growth opportunities are not in the advanced economies but rather in the developing world.  

Part of the reason Peru (now investment grade at BBB-/Baa3) is so attractive is that the central bank has rbeen raising interest rates to try to slow the high growth economy from overheating. El Banco Central de Reserva del Perú has bought $4.8 billion so far this year, including $1.6 billion just this month, and is considering other measures, such as allowing domestic pension funds to increase allocations to foreign investments.  

It's hard to fight against investor flows, on the outflows as well as the inflows.

Posted by Roger K. Horn
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EU timber trade / China´s wood deficit

EU to adopt law on timber trade
The EU is now close to adopting the long discussed timber trading law aimed at banning the import and trade of illegally harvested timber products in the EU. After eight years of dispute between the European Parliament, the Commission and the Council about the content of the legislation, an agreement has finally been reached. Still, the Council has to vote in favor of the legislation, but this is seen as a formality. The law will most likely come into force by 2012 and will place the burden of proof for legality on the first operator to place timber on the EU market. Print products are assumed to be exempt from the law for the first 5 years. (Sources: EUWID, Wood Supply)
China's wood deficit set to reach 150 million m3 by 2015
China's continued economic growth, which is predicted to be around 10% per annum for 2010 and 2011, creates a strong demand for timber imports as the domestic production of timber, which is the world's fourth largest, cannot keep up with consumption. A recent study by Int. Wood Markets predicts a wood deficit of 150 million m3 by 2015, a volume that exceeds the entire annual Canadian timber harvest. (Sources: IMF, Int. Wood Markets).
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The International Woodland Company A/S
 

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