December 19th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:  Epstein Day is Here Odds surged 17% overnight for the DOJ to meet today's deadline to release more Epstein files. A number of Justice Department attorneys have been assigned to the task of redacting and processing the documents for release. But as of this writing, there is nothing out yet, and no official confirmation from the DOJ that they will meet the deadline. "I think they will be. We'll see," said Thomas Massie, author of the Epstein Files Transparency Act at a press conference yesterday. |
Who's In, Who's Out? As traders prepare for the potential release, action has heated up in the "Who will be named in the Epstein files" polymarkets. Biggest gainers in the last day include industrialist David Koch, Al Gore, and Stephen Hawking. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is sitting at 25%. Least likely? AOC, Jimmy Kimmel and Jay-Z. |
Weed Donald Trump yesterday signed an executive order moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, which recognizes some legitimate medical uses. However the EO has not yet made it to the Federal Register, which is the official resolution source for this polymarket. |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in December? View market → | 83%+60% |
| Will the Brown University shooter not be arrested in 2025? View market → | 97%+43% |
| "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office | 3d |
| Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? | 11d |
| Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua | $8.57M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | $1.54M |
| Portugal Presidential Election | $1.53M |
| Super Bowl Champion 2026 | 51d |
| UEFA Champions League Winner | 162d |
Last WordIs that a UFO? An inside look at how Polymarket's dispute resolution process worked during a recent UFO debate. |
That's all for today.
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