December 21st, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:  A Third Tanker? U.S. forces seized a second Venezuelan oil tanker yesterday, and odds are surging for them to take another by year end. This comes as part of Trump's new "blockade" policy, vowing to keep seized crude and target any ship moving sanctioned Venezuelan oil. Chevron continues to transport Venezuelan oil under a carve‑out. |
Election from Hell It's been three weeks since the November 30th Honduran presidential election and the results are still not in. Conservative candidate Nasry "Tito" Asfura remains a heavy favorite in the odds, despite leading partial vote tallies by less than 50,000 votes. There are still nearly 500,000 votes in dispute, and the country has a legal deadline of December 30 to finish the count. |
Bondi Impeached? Attorney General Pam Bondi is under fire following the chaotic release of a new partial batch of Epstein files. Her odds of exiting the Trump administration next year spiked following news that Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie are drafting articles of impeachment against her. |
| Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files? View market → | 23%-22% |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%? View market → | 52%+13% |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity's Last Exam by January 31? View market → | 56%+12% |
| "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office | 1d |
| "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office | 1d |
| How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025? | 3d |
| Will Spotify's top song on December 25 be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'? | 3d |
| Will Trump release Epstein files by...? | $12.23M |
| Fed decision in January? | $1.66M |
| # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? | $1.58M |
| Super Bowl Champion 2026 | 49d |
| Canadiens vs. Penguins | 12h |
| Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona | 3h |
Whale Moves | "Oregon" James Madison vs. Oregon | $279.0K |
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| "No" Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? | $172.0K |
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That's all for today.
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