Trump Gets Nobel?

January 9th, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning: Top Stories Sharing is Caring Could Trump and Venezuelan opposition figure María Corina Machado share last year's Nobel Peace Prize? On Monday night, Machado appeared on Hannity and made the offer. Then, last night, Trump told Hannity he'll meet Machado next week and "that would be a great honor," which sent odds soaring. Although the Nobel Committee says prizes can't be officially transferred, this polymarket resolves "Yes" if both Trump and Machado say they are sharing the prize. Read more → The Shah is Back in Town? The death toll from Iran's nationwide protests has now passed 50. According to some reports, demonstrators are chanting for the return of Iran's exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi. Odds are rising for the U.S. to recognize him as leader of Iran, despite the fact that Trump has not come close to formally endorsing him. "Let everybody go out there and see who emerges," Trump said last night. Check odds → Streams Cross in Portugal? Odds for right wing candidate Luís Marques Mendes to win Portugal's election have been cut in half this week as new polls show him in fifth place and losing most runoff matchups. The first round of voting is on January 18th. Check odds → ​ Breaking News Odds Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16? View market → 11% -18% Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026? View market → 11% -1% ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? View market → 21% -4% See all Breaking → ​ Ending Soon Ends In Microsoft (MSFT) closes week of Jan 5 at ___? 8h HLTV Awards: Top 5 players of 2025 11h See all Ending Soon → ​ New Listed Khamenei visits Russia by...? 11h ago Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31? 12h ago 2026 CFP Semifinals Parlays 13h ago See all New → ​ Hot Polymarkets 24H Volume Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? $2.62M Super Bowl Champion 2026 $2.38M 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner $2.58M Presidential Election Winner 2028 $2.35M See all Hot Polymarkets → ​ Top Sports Starts In 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 191d Super Bowl Champion 2026 29d 2026 NBA Champion 172d Heat vs. Bulls 12h English Premier League Winner 137d See all Top Sports → ​ Whale Moves "No" Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? $520.2K expectless See Wallet → "No" Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? $299.4K expectless See Wallet → "Yes" No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? $230.2K humanbeans See Wallet → See all Whale Moves → Last Word Where is Crypto Going this Year? We're teaming up with Delphi Digital to launch new prediction markets on the future of stablecoins, payments, on-chain trading, and other trends in the crypto markets. Read more → ​ If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here. 1280 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10028 U.S.