December 2nd, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today: Hegseth Out? Fallout continues from the Washington Post report about Pete Hegseth's order to kill survivors of a Venezuelan drug boat strike. The incident has catapulted Hegseth to the most likely cabinet member to leave the Trump Administration this year. But his removal remains a longshot. |
$MSTR Bear Cave Leveraged Bitcoin holding company Strategy (formerly Microstrategy) has lost more than half its value this year amid BTC's fall from $124k to its current price of $87k. CEO Michael Saylor raised eyebrows in a recent investor call when he, for the first time, entertained a scenario in which the company could be forced to sell some of its Bitcoin holdings. Odds of such a sale more than doubled on the news. |
AI Personhood Confirmed? Odds for "AI" to be Time's 2025 Person of the Year are spiking in recent days, as NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's chances have dropped. The Time announcement typically drops in the second week of December. |
| Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? View market → | 40%+37% |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election? View market → | 63%+14% |
| Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025? View market → | 25%-16% |
| StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 Winner | 11d |
| Bank of Japan decision in December? | 16d |
| Elon Musk # tweets December 5 - December 12, 2025? | 6h ago |
| Poker: HCL Million Dollar Marathon Biggest Winner | 11h ago |
| MBC 2025: Research Competition Winner | 12h ago |
| Honduras Presidential Election | $3.53M |
| Portugal Presidential Election | $3.34M |
| Fed decision in December? | $11.12M |
| Trail Blazers vs. Raptors | 12h |
| Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | 7h |
| Fulham vs. Manchester City | 7h |
That's all for today. If you're waiting for the launch of Polymarket USA, make sure you're on the wait list. Get Priority Access 🦅 |
