BREAKING: Maduro Captured. What's Next?

January 3rd, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today: Top Stories Element of Surprise Overnight, the Trump Administration carried out air and special-operations strikes inside Venezuela that succeeded in capturing Nicolás Maduro and removing him from the country. Without dispute, the polymarket for "Maduro out in 2026" has resolved to "Yes." Read more → Invasion? During the operation, low flying Apache helicopters were seen over Caracas facing no resistance. Polymarket traders do not see this action as a U.S. invasion of Venezuela, defined as a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the country. Odds for invasion spiked from 2% to 22% overnight, with no signs of a large-scale American presence on the ground. Check odds → President Machado? There are reports that the Trump Administration was recently attempting to persuade Maduro to cede control to Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, which had been unsuccessful. Rodriguez has called on the U.S. to provide proof-of-life for Maduro. Meanwhile, odds have doubled overnight for Venezuelan dissident and recent Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, also seen as a possible Maduro replacement, to re-enter Venezuela by the end of January. Check odds → ​ Breaking News Odds Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? View market → 48% +47% U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by January 31, 2026? View market → 99% +46% Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? View market → 84% +13% See all Breaking → ​ Ending Soon Ends In Will Stranger Things: Season 5 have more than 75 million views the week of the finale? 2d Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? 3d NFC West Winner 2d See all Ending Soon → ​ New Listed Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? 5h ago U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31? 11h ago Elon Musk # tweets January 6 - January 13, 2026? 8h ago See all New → ​ Hot Polymarkets 24H Volume Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? $12.52M Fed decision in January? $9.95M US x Venezuela military engagement by...? $5.49M Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 $1.60M See all Hot Polymarkets → ​ Top Sports Starts In Timberwolves vs. Heat 8h RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona 6h English Premier League Winner 143d RC Celta de Vigo vs. Valencia CF 23h Seahawks vs. 49ers 15h See all Top Sports → ​ Whale Moves "No" Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? $441.1K wkmfa57 "No" US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? $430.0K wkmfa57 See all Whale Moves → ​ If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here. 1280 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10028 U.S.