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January 4th, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:  Mugshot Monday? Former Venezuelan president Maduro arrived in New York overnight by helicopter and has been booked into the same Brooklyn facility that held Diddy. Trump has promised Maduro will "face the full wrath of American justice, " as Maduro is set for arraignment in SDNY as early as today on narco-terrorism charges. But traders are split on whether an official Maduro mugshot will be released over the weekend. Odds have plunged 20% in recent trading. |
Who is Running Venezuela Now? Venezuela's Supreme Court has named Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president, but Trump says the U.S. will run the country until a "safe transition." Trump has already cast doubt on Nobel Prize winner Machado's viability. But "Domer," one of Polymarket's sharpest traders, is set to win $28,691 if she re-enters Venezuela this month. |
Cuba Next? With Maduro out of the picture, traders are eyeing the regime 90 miles from Mar-a-Lago. On Saturday Trump said Cuba is "going to be something we'll end up talking about," and that he wants to "help the people" just like in Venezuela. Cuba's president is calling it a threat and telling Cubans to prepare for war. Is Trump going for a doubleheader? |
| Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in January? View market → | 25%-44% |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? View market → | 37%+13% |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? View market → | 58%+14% |
| "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office | 23h |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | 13h ago |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA Keynote? | 14h ago |
| Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings? | 16h ago |
| Hot Polymarkets | 24H Volume |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by...? | $25.20M |
| Fed decision in January? | $6.46M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | $5.33M |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? | $5.01M |
| UEFA Champions League Winner | $2.99M |
Whale Moves | "Yes" Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-03? | $523.0K |
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| "No" Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | $146.7K |
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| "No" Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? | $140.3K |
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