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December 29th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:  Silver Bust? The silver market has seen insane volatility over the past week, with the metal jumping 10% before retracing the move in a violent dip. As we write, silver is trading down ~7% at $72.19 / oz. Polymarket traders expect a recovery to above $80 by end of January 2026. |
Bank Failure? The second prong of the rumors are that the silver trade has caused a major bank or trading desk to blow up. Odds for a U.S. bank failure in 2026 spiked as much as 60% this morning before retracing violently.The potentially busted banks are not FDIC-insured, which is the resolution source for this polymarket. |
Panic Button Another way to gauge stress in the market is in the odds for a NYSE market-wide circuit breaker in 2026. These trading halts are triggered by a 7% or greater intraday drop in the S&P 500 index. This polymarket has been particularly volatile in December, seeing jumps of 10% or more. |
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| "No" Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | $113.8K |
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| "No" Maduro out in 2025? | $110.6K |
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