Did a bank just blow up?

December 29th, 2025 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today: Top Stories Silver Bust? The silver market has seen insane volatility over the past week, with the metal jumping 10% before retracing the move in a violent dip. As we write, silver is trading down ~7% at $72.19 / oz. Polymarket traders expect a recovery to above $80 by end of January 2026. Read more → Bank Failure? The second prong of the rumors are that the silver trade has caused a major bank or trading desk to blow up. Odds for a U.S. bank failure in 2026 spiked as much as 60% this morning before retracing violently.The potentially busted banks are not FDIC-insured, which is the resolution source for this polymarket. Check odds → Panic Button Another way to gauge stress in the market is in the odds for a NYSE market-wide circuit breaker in 2026. These trading halts are triggered by a 7% or greater intraday drop in the S&P 500 index. This polymarket has been particularly volatile in December, seeing jumps of 10% or more. Check odds → ​ Breaking News Odds Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? View market → 22% -15% Will the RSF capture Kadugli by January 31? View market → 20% -2% Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? View market → 57% -4% See all Breaking → ​ Ending Soon Ends In What day will the Lighter airdrop be? 1d Next US x Venezuela military engagement on...? 1d Who will Trump talk to in December? 1d Which company has second best AI model end of December? 1d See all Ending Soon → ​ New Listed Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota? 1d ago Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by...? 1d ago What will Trump say during Netanyahu event on Monday? 1d ago See all New → ​ Hot Polymarkets Volume Fed decision in January? $2.53M Super Bowl Champion 2026 $1.84M See all Hot Polymarkets → ​ Top Sports Starts In Atalanta BC vs. FC Internazionale Milano - More Markets 4h Rams vs. Falcons 10h Magic vs. Raptors 9h Capitals vs. Panthers 9h See all Top Sports → ​ Whale Moves "No" MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? $114.8K lfg321 "No" Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? $113.8K bobe2 "No" Maduro out in 2025? $110.6K tutrucks See all Whale Moves → ​ Top Comments Powered by @Poly_Archive ​ If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here. 1280 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10028 U.S.